Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Bath, Chelmsford City, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh
- Football, the start of the new Premier League season
- Cricket, the start of the England v Australia ODI series at Old Trafford
- Tennis, the final weekend of the US Open
- Golf, the Safeway Open on the USPGA and the Portugal Masters on the European tour
- Formula One, the Toscana Grand Prix at Mugello
Free tip
Premier League relegation Market
A new season starts this weekend. I wanted to put up what I think is an outstanding ante-post value bet in the relegation market, one which at worst I would regard as a trading position. Also an early disclaimer, I support this team, but there is no emotional hedge here.
Leicester City are 40/1 in a few places in the relegation market. For a side that finished 5th last season you might think that this is as unlikely as the price suggests. I wanted to make an alternative case.
Once the Premier League returned from lockdown, the mini table in the nine games to the end of the season showed Leicester in 16th with 2 wins in their nine games. In fact the worsening of form began last Christmas. Beyond the starting eleven, the squad lacked depth and a side that ran above expectation in xG terms whilst riding high until December then fell away when injuries exposed that from December onwards.
Leicester is also one of the sides most exposed to the financial consequences of COVID. The owners king Power core business is duty free in Asian airports, and revenue has been hard hit and yet to recover. The owners are of course a wealthy family, but there has been some corporate caution around spending plans in their interests outside the core.
The crisis has also come at a bad time for the club which is in the midst of expansion plans. A new £95m training ground is near completion, expansion of the stadium to a capacity of 42,000 is near approval at a near £100m cost. The club has refinanced loans to aid cash-flow and had already taken the decision not to sell the old training ground instead using it as a base for a new pro Ladies team.
All this helps explain how a club that has sold one marquee player each summer since winning the title cannot strengthen the squad as it would like from a playing perspective. After all £80m for Maguire was received in one payment last summer. There were no permanent arrivals in the January window. So far this summer, with Chilwell sold for up to £50m, there has been one arrival (Castagne from Atalanta, for £18m, a versatile replacement) and whilst more might follow with the window open into October, I certainly view a slow start as probable especially considering the squad is injury and suspension hit.
Of course were Leicester’s first choice team to remain intact with no injuries and suspensions let alone dips in form throughout a season, then all well and good. However a condensed schedule requiring rotation and appearances in the Europa league (play Thursdays, then turn round and play in the league on Sundays) mean that is unlikely.
At a big price, this strikes me as a bet to run with...
10 points Leicester City to be relegated at 40-1 Betfred, William Hill
Zero to Hero
From 2003 ( the season the current NFL divisional alignment began) through to last season 21 teams went from fourth to first in a division with at least once instance in 15 of the 17 seasons with 2014 and last season being the exceptions. Nearly half of those worst-to-first teams won four or fewer games the previous season.
Your annual reminder that a league operating a salary cap and a draft with the worst teams able to pick top talent ahead of the play-off teams from the season before at least gives the potential, allied with free agency spending and coaching changes, to go from also-ran to contender very quickly
Last season was an outlier as five of the eight 2018 division champions repeated their titles. The San Francisco 49ers (4-12 in 2018) and Green Bay Packers (6-9-1) did take noteworthy
Which of the eight last-place finishers from last season are best set up to turn-around quickly?
Cincinnati Bengals (28/1 to win the AFC North) – No. 1-overall pick Joe Burrow has brought high hopes of an improvement. Assuming the offensive line is at least competent, the offense has a lot of talent at the skill positions but it’s a tough division to suggest the Bengals will improve past the Ravens and the Steelers. 6 or so wins would be a step in the right direction.
Carolina Panthers (25/1 to win the NFC South ) – With a new head coach in Matt Rhule and a new QB in Teddy Bridgewater, the Panthers find themselves at a similar disadvantage in the NFC South with the rest of the division looking loaded behind Brady, Brees and Ryan. Carolina start 4 rookies on defense against these offenses.
Washington Football Team (25/1 to win the NFC East ) – Still a franchise in transition (off the field and on) but with much more talent than previously due to years of high draft picks particularly on defense. Whether this is another 3 or 4 win season or something approaching 8-8 will depend on QB Haskins in his second year.
Jacksonville Jaguars (25/1 to win the AFC South) – Probably the least likely of these eight teams to contend. Spent the summer trading away talent and collecting extra draft picks for the next stage of a rebuild in the 2021 draft
Los Angeles Chargers (9/1 to win the AFC West) Philip Rivers is gone but there’s a very talented roster still. Are they seriously contenders though with Tyrod Taylor game-manging at quarterback and in a division with Patrick Mahomes?
Miami Dolphins (9/1 to win the AFC East) – With the Patriots looking like a post-Brady transition, there is now a path for the Bills (most probably) and Dolphins (possibly) to win this division, finally. The Dolphins started lost their first seven games last year and won 5 of the last 9 after that since when they have invested heavily in free agency and had three first round draft picks in April.
Arizona Cardinals (8/1 to win the NFC West) – Year two of the rebuild here and as one of the shorter prices of these teams suggests with a couple of drafts under Kliff Kingsbury and a young Quarterback in place a winning record loos at least a possibility.
Detroit Lions (6/1 to win the NFC North) – After 6-10 and 3-12-1 seasons the Lions are a lot of people’s turnaround dark horses, with Stafford fit and what looks like a winnable division (give me the Packers though). Much to prove on the coaching staff though and the shortest price of any of these 2019 fourth place teams to go last to first in 2020
One against the “2019 the fourth place finisher” field at current prices? The Dolphins.
Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season is underway. Last year we won +99.52 points with a ROI of +41.47%
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th September
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton, Thirsk and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Stratford
- Football, UEFA Nations League Matches and the EFL Cup first Round
- Cricket, the start of the England v Australia T20 series
- Tennis, the US Open continues
- Golf, the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club on the USPGA and the Andulacia Masters on the European tour
- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza
NFL 2020 (17 week regular season) starts next week
Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with a ROI of +41.47%
Free tip
The 2020 Vitality T20 Blast
Surrey v Middlesex. Saturday 6.35pm
In the South Group the first of the London derbies takes place on Saturday evening. Both sides have been struggling in the early stages of the tournament. In Middlesex’s case there is an element of adverse variance at play. They were rained off having scored 185 against Essex and then tied with kent having scored 209 before losing to Sussex scoring 165 and failing to defend. At least their batting has been firing, particularly opener Steve Eskanazi.
In this truncated season Surrey have been struggling. Bottom of their Bob Willis Trophy Group in the blast they have been under-powered. For reasons ranging from England absences to injury they have 14 players missing and this has led to the introduction of a number of younger players, particularly bowlers, into the team where they are having to learn on the job.
Until Thursday Surrey, like Middlesex, had a tie, loss and a no result but in low-ish scoring games indicative of a lack of batting firepower in the short format. Amla is back, but isn’t a game changer now for example. They had the best of a rain affected match on Thursday night chasing 80 in 11 overs to beat Hampshire. Middlesex meanwhile defended 167 in beating Essex in a full 20 over match.
With Surrey’s selection problems, Middlesex look the stronger side to me, and aren't priced as favourites,the weekend weather forecast doesn’t indicate weather problems and the variance that a reduced game produces either.
11 points Middlesex to beat Surrey at 10/11 generally
A New Concorde
All ten teams in F1 have signed the new 2021 Concorde agreement, a contract between Formula 1, governing body the FIA and the teams which wish to compete in the F1 World Championship. which commits them to the series until 2025 which is an achievement given the sport’s history of politics and self-interest. It has been nicknamed a Robin Hood agreement because the new Concorde Agreement is, on one level, about taking from the richer teams and giving to the poorer teams.
Liberty Media outlined its desire for a more equal distribution of funds from the moment they took over the sport and they have delivered on that front with the first Concorde that they have negotiated.
They had two main targets
- Address the unequal revenue distribution
- Provide a more level playing field
They’ve achieved both: financially with the Concorde terms and a new budget cap (The cap will be set at $145m in 2021, dropping to $140m in 2022, then $135m for 2023–25. A further review will then take place to establish the ceiling for 2026 and beyond. Current spending for the biggest teams is thought to be over $400m) and with new technical regulations and a fresh set of sporting rules coming for 2022. Ahead of that the budget cap agreement has also introduced the concept of an increased allowance of aerodynamic research and development on a sliding scale based on a team’s position in the constructors’ championship. To be weighted in favour of reverse order of success, the intent is to close up the grid. It is set to be used in 2021 as the teams work on developing cars for 2022.
What does it mean for the racing in the short term? Not a lot but in the medium term the outlook for all teams has improved from a business perspective, and for many from a competitive one, too with a much reduced spending disadvantage likely to provide for closer racing
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Newmarket, Goodwood, Redcar and Windsor
- Football, the Community Shield, Arsenal v Liverpool
- Cricket, the second T20 International between England and Pakistan in Manchester and the T20 Blast starts next week
- Tennis, the US Open Next week
- Golf, the BW Championship on the USPGA and the UK Championship at the Belfry on the European tour
- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa
NFL 2020 (17 week regular season)
Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with an amazing ROI +41.47%
Free tip
Cricket: The 2020 Vitality T20 Blast
The delayed tournament starts today and runs until the first weekend in October with finals day at Edgbaston.
A revised format is in operation for this year, with three regional groups of six teams each, playing ten games with the quarter-finals to follow. This compares to two groups of nine last year and 14 group games each. This shorter format, and the probability of plenty of weather affected matches this late into the summer and early autumn introduces higher variance into an already high variance competition. Just to add to the unpredictability, three venues will host multiple matches (for TV double header purposes) in Manchester, Leeds and the Oval such that a variety of teams won’t play a full complement of matches at their home grounds, others more than 50% at home.
You might see where this is going. The betting market is 7/1 the field (Notts ), 10/1 bar the top three (Notts, Sussex, Somerset) and each way terms are ½ 1,2. I am very much looking to find an unfancied, unfashionable outsider in the betting market given the variance factors at play. Another factor is the competition won’t contain many overseas players, levelling the playing field between big and smaller budget counties
I had two candidates, Derbyshire and Durham. Derbyshire made finals day last year, doing well in the Bob Willis trophy this year and resolutely ignored in betting markets at 25-1. The big problem here is that they play all 10 group games away from Derby but nonetheless they are fast improving and were it to be confirmed that the competition’s leading wicket taker last season, Ravi Rampaul, can make it back from Trinidad for Derbyshire, they’d be on my formal bet list
Durham meanwhile play 6 out of 10 matches at Chester-le-street. A side full of canny bowlers that suit difficult late season conditions and young batting talent notably Scott Steel and completely unconsidered in the market for a tournament where frankly much is unpredictable. They are without last season’s top scorer Darcy Short, but the price reflects that. They start with a tough game against Lancashire tonight in a match with bad weather expected.
5 points each way Durham 2020 Vitality T20 Blast at 33-1 (1/2 1,2) William Hill (28/1 BetVictor 25/1 generally)
CVC
There’s no doubting CVC’s growing influence in rugby following their investments in both the Gallagher Premiership and the Pro 14 as well as their prospective investment in the Six Nations.
As a young professional sport (1995) there is a lot of commercial potential. CVC are are a minority partner with 27% in both Premiership Rugby and the Pro14, with responsibility to drive success of the commercial side, and no involvement with sporting and regulatory decisions. CVC have invested more than £300m into rugby over the last 18 months. There is a requirement that the money is reinvested into the game rather than taken out as a dividend by the club owners.With hindsight, this project should help rugby survive the Covid pandemic and continue to build the sport over the next ten years.
Of course there are risks. The main cause of friction between the clubs and the RFU is access to players, as the RFU requires players to be released for international commitments. Unlike football, Premiership rugby continues uninterrupted through international windows, and so clubs lose their international players. This causes a conflict as the RFU request players availability, whilst the clubs want their international stars to be playing as much domestic rugby as possible in order to increase the chances of success on the field. It should be expected that if it is investing significantly, and the aim of its investment is to make a profitable return, CVC will want to drive a harder bargain with the RFU over the cost of player release for international windows. This would be a win-win for the clubs, achieving either more money from the RFU or better player availability. It might not be such a positive for player welfare though
As it did with Formula 1, CVC will be looking to make a profit on its investment. It will therefore likely be seeking to significantly increase the value of the Premiership and then sell it. While the initial investment windfall and the increased value are hugely positive for the clubs, the horizon post-sale is uncertain in terms of both ownership of the league and long-term financial security.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Sandown and York and over the jumps at Uttoxeter.
- Football, the Champions League Final, PSG v Bayern tomorrow night
- Cricket, the third test between England and Pakistan in Southampton
- Golf, the Northern Trust Open at TPC Boston on the USPGA and the Wales Open on the European tour
NFL 2020 (17 week regular season)
Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with an amazing ROI +41.47%
Free tip
Leicester v Bath Saturday 4.30pm
Leicester are second bottom of the Gallagher Premiership table with only Sarcens and their huge points deduction below them. With only four wins all season Leicester have returned to action with a new Head coach in Steve Borthwick and another plan to return to competitiveness. Covid-related Financial constraints haven’t helped in the near term with the departure of Tuilagi and May and some other players released from contract
On their first game back they lost 26-13 at Exeter, a competitive performance but with the achilles heel of recent years making all the difference. Leicester aren’t strong enough in the back five of the pack to withstand the better sides. Borthwick and recruitment will help that but for now it remains a key weakness
Bath are 5th in the table with 8 wins and returned to action under their head coach Neal Hatley with a 34-17 home win against London Irish. A solid side, bolstered by the excellent recruitment of Ben Spencer from Saracens they are very strong up front and it is a surprise to see them initially priced up as underdogs for this game. I would have them clear favourites, with the modest bonus that Leicester (playing at the largest club rugby ground in the country) won’t have the support of their passionate crowd.
22 points Bath to beat Leicester -1 on the handicap at 10/11 generally
Six Appeal
The Six Nations has confirmed the dates for the resumption of the 2020 championship, where fixtures were postponed in March first in Italy then generally with the outbreak of COVID in Europe.
Ireland are confirmed to face Italy on 24th October and then France on Super Saturday 31st October with a line up as follows for that last weekend
Wales v Scotland 2.15pm
Italy v England 4.45pm
France v Ireland 8pm
England currently narrowly lead France at the top of the table each with a 3-1 win-loss record and England with a two point lead on points difference. Ireland are likely to go into their last game in Paris with a 3-1 record too
So far France have scored 13 tries and their captain Ollivon is top try scorer with 4. Owen Farrell is 8 points behind Dan Biggar to be top points scorer (39 to 47) with a trip to Rome to come
France v Ireland is going to be an important and tight game. Early prices have it 10/11 each of two.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Chepstow, Newmarket, Newbury and Doncaster.
- Football, Champions League Quarter finals
- Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix
- Cricket, the second test between England and Pakistan in Southampton continues
- Rugby Union, the return of the English Premiership tonight
- Snooker, the final weekend of the World Championship in Sheffield
- Golf, the Wyndham Championship on the USPGA and the Celtric Classic on the European tour
York Ebor Festival - Full Package (19th - 22nd August 2020)
Neil Channing returns next week with race-by-race coverage of York’s Ebor festival. The cost for all the write ups is £99.99
NFL 2020 (17 week regular season)
Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with an amazing ROI +41.47%
Free tip
Worcester v Gloucester Saturday 3pm BTSport
The Gallagher Premiership returns this weekend as the teams play out the remainder of the season after a five month break, before the new season starts almost immediately.
Gloucester had been having a poor season winning only 4 of 13 games having made the play-offs last year. There has been an overhaul during the down-time with the coach, director of rugby and several players leaving. In their place a new coaching staff has arrived and new recruits include the England winger Johnny May returning to the club. A far more talented side than their results up to March suggested they lost a number of close games, such that their points difference is only -10 across the 13 games.
Worcester have an identical win-loss record, but points conceded exceed points scored by 99. Perennial basement dwellers in the Premiership four wins is actually an improved performance but they are fortunate that Saracens’ relegation removes that risk for them.
Taking both sides fitness on trust in the first game back, Gloucester have a chance to make the most of their fresh start and show their superiority
11 points Gloucester -3 points to win at Worcester 10/11 generally
Non Stop
Premiership Rugby has confirmed that next season will finish on June 26th...which means requests from the British & Irish Lions, who conduct a ten match tour to current World Champions South Africa next summer, for extra preparation time were rejected (again). Players in this competition will have non-stop rugby from Aug 14th 2020 (the current season resumption) to Aug 7 2021 (the third Lions 3rd Test v South Africa)
This of course raises genuine concerns about player welfare for the top players who have to get through one and a third domestic seasons, the remainder of the 2020 six nations, the Champions cup last 8, autumn internationals, the 2021 Six Nations, the 2020-21 Champions Cup and then go to South Africa without a break. Deep breath!
One bright spot though is that this should not apply to the Saracens players. Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Elliot Daly, Jamie George and the Vunipola brothers will arrive, injuries permitting, in Africa off a low workload. All six players mentioned would currently feature in most people's Lions Test Match 23.
As Saracens have been relegated into the Championship their international players and certainy Lions will go on tour with no more than 20 games played in the coming season with no European rugby and mainly Six Nation requirements.
In a season that could end up as with a very high rate of injuries and unavailability for the Lions with conflict between between country and club, Saracens players will at least be in a condition to fully contribute..
Not that South Africa have it that easy either. The (presumably full South Hemisphere competition) Super Rugby season starts next February and the Springboks will play from straight through from February to late November
A busy time to be an International rugby player, but an even busier time for their medical staff is likely.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
