Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester United
- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Lingfield
- NFL Conference Championships in the Play-Offs
- Rugby Union, the final round of Pool Games in the European Champions Cup
- Golf, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and on the USPGA, The American Express Championship at PGA West, California
- Tennis, the Australian Open in Melbourne
- Cricket, the third Test between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth
NFL The Super Bowl
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rigby Pool matches
Ulster v Bath 3.15pm Saturday
This weekend sees the last round of pool matches.
Ulster are in line to claim one of three runners up spots and reach the knockout stages for the second year running, they have 4 pool stage wins in 5 games and 17 points, their sole defeat co ing last weekend last weekend at Clermont Auvergne 29-13 where Ulster were left rueing missed first half opportunities.
Bath have lost 5 of 5 pool matches and with a constant schedule of Gallagher Premiership games (mid-table currently with 4 wins from 8) to come and absences likely during Six Nations could rotate heavily this match.
Last weekend against Harlequins in this competition Bath picked a young team, making no less than 14 changes to the starting line-up which lost the West Country derby away to Gloucester in the Premiership the weekend before. and lost 19-25 at home.
Ulster have a considerable home advantage in Belfast,are 2nd in their Pro 14 pool behind Leinster with 7 wins from 10 matches and have one of the stand out players in European rugby so far this season in John cooney a scrum half with nine tries to date
Ulster should be several scores too good for Bath given the visitors likely line up. Indeed the handicap spread has them at -23 points and I intend to play the winning margin across two ranges of scores this weekend
6 points Ulster to win by 21-25 points at 5/1 with SkyBet and William Hill
6 points Ulster to win by 26-30 points at 11/2 with SkyBet and William Hill
Youth Movement
Despite the continuing success of 40-year-old Drew Brees the NFL has seen a youth movement at quarterback this season. More quarterbacks age 27 or younger are starting, and winning, games this season than ever before.
According to the NFL, 289 starts have been made this season by quarterbacks age 27 or younger, by far the most in any season since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. In the regular this season 145 games were won by quarterbacks age 27 or younger, again by far the most in NFL history.
The results don’t change if the cutoff age is changed to 26 or 25: However you define “young,” this has been the most productive season in NFL history for young quarterbacks.
From 22 year old Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson and promising rookies like Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones the league has seen a very promising influx of young passers.
Quarterbacks today (especially very high draft picks) are expected to either start out the gate, or given a very short leash in terms of performance. Very, Very few quarterbacks will have the luxury of sitting for three years (e.g. Aaron Rodgers) to learn from a star veteran. It’s not unusual now to see a high draft pick get benched/traded/released if that person don’t meet expectations immediately.
On the flip side..NFL fans of some franchises have had to endure the downside of this trend with players like Winston, Mariota and Rosen providing at best mixed performance.
For the successful examples, part of the reason for their success is their low salary and ability for teams to build a good roster around them. Once they get paid on their second contract after 4-5 years of their rookie deal then less of the salary cap can go to other players.
If a team, through a combination of scouting skill and luck does hit on a quarterback on a rookie deal, the team has around $30m more per year on the salary cap compared to a second contract quarterback. That lets a team afford three more Pro Bowl players at other positions out of 22 starters and can make a big difference as we have seen with the Ravens this year (recruiting Earl Thomas, Mark Ingram and Marcus Peters) onto a roster led by Lamar Jackson.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Liverpool
- Racing, over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Lingfield
- NFL the play-Offs Divisional Round
- Golf, on the USPGA, The Sony Open in Hawaii and on the European Tour the South African Open
- Tennis, The ATP ASB Classic in Auckland
- Cricket, the third Test between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth starts on Thursday
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Rugby resumes with the penultimate round of Pool matches
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 4 Sunday 3.15pm
Racing 92 v Munster
In the toughest pool in this year’s competition Munster go to La Defense and the new indoor stadium in Paris to face top of the pool Racing 92 who have three wins and a draw from their four games and are top of a pool also containing defending champions Saracens
Racing’s draw was in Limerick against Munster (21-21). With 17 points so far they have a big incentive to aim for the bonus point win as they are currently only potentially the fourth seed for the knockout stages, with the fourth best record of the four unbeaten sides behind Leinster, Toulouse and Ulster.
Munster have 11 points in the pool after their narrow loss at Saracens before Christmas. They are going to need to win their last two games to try to get one of the three best runners up spots.Their last pool game is at home to the struggling Ospreys where they would expect a bonus point win.
So far in the pool Racing have scored 131 points but have played the Ospreys twice scoring 40 points on each occasion, Munster have only scored 69 points but they have also only conceded 52 points. This speaks to a traditional strength, where Munster have a very solid 6-8-9 axis (O’Mahoney, Stander and Murray). However the team has more strings to its bow with the introduction of Stephen Larkham to the coaching team who has brought more flair to the back line with a willingness to off-load. This bodes well for their ability to score points in what will be perfect conditions here.
Racing are 8 point favourites on the spread, and should win, but Munster’s strong defense and greater point scoring potential mean they might keep it closer than many expect.
10 points Racing92 to win by 1-12 points at 8/5 with PaddyPower and 6/4 Betfred
Back to front?
Last off-season two Pro Football Focus data scientists published a report that focused on the impact of coverage and pass rush on an NFL team’s defense. They found that a defense’s coverage ability had a stronger correlation to success than its ability to rush the passer. Their conclusion ran counter to conventional wisdom as the majority of teams covet dominant pass rushers and pay them accordingly.
Heading into the Divisional round this weekend two of the three favourites in the AFC Baltimore and New England have constructed their defenses with the secondary rather than the pass rush in mind, as a way to seek to counter the modern offenseive trend in the NFl towards young big armed quarterbacks who thrive in the passing game.
Both teams allocated below average amounts from their 2019 salary cap to edge rushers and allowed high-priced rushers like Trey Flowers and Za’Darius Smith to leave in free agency. The Ravens used their extra resources to sign free safety Earl Thomas and trade for Marcus Peters in October. With Thomas and Peters joining Jimmy Smith and slot cornerback Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens now have four former first-round picks in their starting secondary. New England have star cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Devin McCourty, two of the highest-paid players at their respective positions.
The Ravens have pressured Quarterbacks in unconventional ways. Baltimore enter the play-offs with a 44% blitz rate, the highest in the league over the regular season. New England ranked ninth, at 29% but have also sent all-out blitzes with zero coverage to great effect all season. All that blitzing has allowed both teams to consistently create pressure without much elite edge-rushing talent.
In the medium term there can be downsides to this approach, year-to-year performance among defensive backs has a much higher variance than quality edge rushers. Some of the most effective units have exemplified the kind of impact a back-to-front construction can have when things go right. Conversely the 49ers for example, who were able to recruit the de facto defensive rookie of the year with the second pick in last year’s draft, Nick Bosa have shown this season that a great pass rush can still carry a defense. It could be that at the end of the month we will see two different approaches in action in the Super-Bowl.
The Play-offs are underway and in conjunction with Neil Channing write ups will be available at this link for £50
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
From January Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the third round of the FA Cup
- Racing, over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and all-weather racing at Kempston and Lingfield
- NFL Wild Card weekend at the start of the Play-Offs
- Golf, on the USPGA, The tournament of Champions in Hawaii
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brisbane, Shenzhen and Qatar
- Cricket, the second Test between South Africa and England in Cape Town
NFL Playoffs 2019 including Championship Games
The Play-offs begin this weekend and in conjunction with Neil Channing write ups will be available at this link for £50
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
Free tip
FA Cup Ante-post
The third round of the FA Cup this weekend and a look at the ante-post market for the competition. In nine out of the last ten seasons a “top six” side has won the Cup (the exception Wigan in 2012-13) but also in that time a variety of lesser fancied sides have made the final, including Watford last year and before that Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Hull City, Stoke City and Portsmouth in the last decade alone.
Of course the Cup as a competition doesn’t have the prominence it had previously, and where I tend to start whittling down the short-list for value is to accept that those sides battling at either end of the table will have other priorities. We currently have seven sides in Europe (Champions League four, Europa League three including Wolves) and as many as nine sides within four points of the Premier League bottom three.
For the top sides squads are deep and strong, so they can fight on multiple fronts and significant team rotation can be withstood remaining competitive. It’s not uncommon to see lesser sides with other priorities approach the cup half-heartedly, both in team selection and on the field.
My short-list begins with the logic that if there are sides who aren’t going to hit the top six and aren’t going down then they should be all out to try to win the competition. This doesn’t always follow, I have regular head scratching episodes for these teams who prioritise three Premier League points a few days later over progressing in the cup.
Anyway this season’s shortlist
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Everton
Sheffield United are the best placed, in 8th position as I write having only lost 4 games so far this season, with a manager who emphasises game by game commitment and a squad primarily with a grounding in the lower leagues. I wouldn’t expect them to be challenging for the top six all season, but would expect them to take the Cup seriously.
Crystal Palace in 9th are a less solid proposition defensively but there is no reason why they shouldn’t look for a deep run in the competition.
Newcastle are 13th, with three wins in the run up to Christmas taking them to a position of safety. They are the least prolific of these sides, with 19 league goals in 17 games.
Everton under Ancelotti are presumably going to improve quickly but have the drawback here of being drawn away to Liverpool in the 3rd round.
The shape of the market is as follows
Manchester City 3-1
Liverpool 6-1
Tottenham 7-1
Chelsea 8-1
Manchester United 12-1
Leicester 14-1
Arsenal 14-1
Wolves 25-1
Everton 33-1
West Ham 40-1
Crystal Palace 50-1
Sheffield United 50-1
Newcastle 50-1
Bar 66-1
Each way terms are ½ 1,2. Of course it is the each way aspect that appeals as the likelihood is that the cup will be one by one of the big sides, and any selection is going to need some fortune with the draw. On value grounds though, and looking at where else teams might be focussed on, I will take these two sides
5 points each way Crystal Palace to win the FA Cup 50-1 generally
5 points each way Sheffield United to win the FA Cup 50-1 generally
The IPL Auction
The 2020 IPL which begins in April will be the 13th season of the competition which was won in 2019 by Mumbai Indians.
Pat Cummins became the most expensive overseas purchase in Indian Premier League (IPL) history as the Kolkata Knight Riders spent more than £1.6 million on the Australian fast bowler in the 2020 IPL Auction. Cummins, is number one in the ICC Test bowling rankings and his pace and accuracy marked him out as a standout player in the auction.
England limited overs captain Eoin Morgan was also bought by the Knight Riders most likely to be their captain and KKR look to be one of the early favourites with Morgan, Narine, Russell and Cummins their coterie of marquee overseas players.
There was also a big deal for all-rounder Sam Curran, who was bought by the Chennai Super Kings. Australian Glenn Maxwell, seam-bowling all-rounder Chris Morris of South Africa and West Indian left-arm fast bowler Sheldon Cottrell were three of the other marquee purchases as a number of high-profile names went under the hammer at the event in Kolkata.
Morgan will be joined at the Knight Riders by budding star Tom Banton, with the Somerset opening batsman set to get a first taste of T20 cricket’s premier franchise competition in 2020 after receiving a £110k deal.
Chris Jordan, Tom Curran, Chris Woakes and Jason Roy were also purchased in the auction, taking the English contingent in next year’s competition to 13. Harry Gurney, Jofra Archer, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali and Jos Buttler were all retained by their teams before the auction.
The five biggest signings of the auction were:
£1.6 million: Pat Cummins, Kolkata Knight Riders.
£1.15 million: Glenn Maxwell, Kings XI Punjab
£1.1 million: Chris Morris, Royal Challengers Bangalore
£910k: Sheldon Cottrell, Kings XI Punjab
£855k: Nathan Coulter-Nile, Mumbai Indians
England players will play in the IPL in 2020 as follows:
Royal Challengers Bangalore: Moeen Ali
Kings XI Punjab: Chris Jordan
Delhi Capitals: Jason Roy, Chris Woakes
Chennai Super Kings: Sam Curran
Sunrisers Hyderabad: Jonny Bairstow
Kolkata Knight Riders: Eoin Morgan, Tom Banton, Harry Gurney
Mumbai Indians:
Rajasthan Royals: Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes, Jofra Archer, Tom Curran
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
From January Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches: The Christmas period
Happy Christmas to all readers, after this weekend the next edition will be on Friday 3rd January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League Matches include Manchester City v Leicester City and Tottenham v Chelsea
- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and all-weather racing at Lingfield
- NFL Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, The Australian PGA Championship
- Cricket, the first Test between South Africa and England at Centurion starts on Boxing Day
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)
By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link
Free tip
The Welsh Grand National, Friday 27th December Chepstow 12.30pm by Neil Channing
I'm having 12 Points each-way Elegant Escape at 9/2 1/4 1234 with SkyBet, Ladbrokes and Betfred.
The Brady Bunch
Despite three losses in their last six games, the New England Patriots remain in their usual December position: atop the AFC East and positioned as one of the top seeds in the conference, this time with a 11-3 record. Yet you can’t help but look at Tom Brady’s performance this season and feel like the six-time Super Bowl winning quarterback has lost a step. A closer examination shows Brady’s drop is dramatic enough to make him an average passer at best in 2019.
Brady has been named to the Pro Bowl 14 times in his 20-year career, but the 42-year-old isn’t as productive as he used to be and the Patriots overall are successful because of their strength on defense and special teams.
It’s easy to attribute Brady’s uneven performances this year to the loss of five-time Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski (retired), the failed Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown experiments and an overall lack of quality receiving options. However, Brady’s rate of “on target” throws has declined from 72% in 2018 to 65% this season, a number that is third worst amongst 26 quarterbacks with at least 300 passes thrown this year.
The truth is that Brady has been trending down for a few seasons. His completion rate is on a three-year decline, from close to a career high in 2016 (67%) to one of the lowest marks of his career in 2019 (61%).
The Patriots’ offense has been underwhelming. New England is averaging less than two points per drive, an average rate for this season and the fifth-lowest rate for the franchise since Coach Bill Belichick took over in 2000. The Patriots are also struggling in the red zone (49%, ranking 24th) and in goal-to-go situations (60%, 25th).
Alex Guerrero, Brady’s personal trainer, has speculated that the quarterback might play until he is 46 or 47. But if the current trends continue, the three-time NFL MVP could be retiring sooner than that.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.
From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League Matches include Arsenal v Manchester City
- Racing, over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford and all-weather racing at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the fourth round of Pol matches in this season’s Heineken Cup
- NFL Week 15 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, The Presidents Cup in Melbourne and the QBE Shootout
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)
Starting this weekend. By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link
Free tip
Saracens v Munster, European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 4 Round 4 Saturday 3pm
Pool 4 of this season’s Heineken Cup, containing Racing92, Saracens and Munster looked tough before the competition started and so it has proved for Saracens who now have two away losses in their first three games and as a result the defending tournament champions sit in third place in the pool.
Racing92 have won 3 from 3, most recently in Wales last weekend against a 14 man Ospreys side and with the same side visiting Paris this weekend will be confident of virtually wrapping up the pool.
That leaves Saracens and Munster likely scrapping for a best runners up spot in the knockout stages after the Six Nations.
Back in April a full strength Saracens side beat Munster 32-16 in the quarter finals of this competition. This season Saracens have played the competition so far without the majority of their International players, only recently back from the rugby world cup. In their 10-3 loss in Limerick last Saturday only Maro Itoje of the current international players took the field. Saracens, controversially with their salary cap infringements, do have a strong and balanced squad but going to Paris and Limerick without a full complement of players was a huge ask.
In Limerick, such were the terrible conditions in the second half as the wind and rain rolled in off the Atlantic, that is tempting to disregard the result. No points were socred in the second half after Munster had the wind advantage in the first half as as the weather worsened it became a game where it was best not to have the ball and it was impossible to claw back a deficit.
This weekend a number of Saracens’ international stars are due back, the weather forecast for London is ok and so in what is a must win game for Saracens we should expect the hosts to bounce back.
That is not to say it will be easy. Munster are a nuggety side, experienced and strong in defense with their 6-8-9 axis of O’Mahoney, Stander and Conor Murray top class. This season, where they have averaged over 26 points scored per game in seven Pro 14 games, they recruited former Australian international fly half Stephen Larkham as attack coach and he has added extra dimensions to their intended approach as conditions allow with offloads and expanision on the agenda.
So with a good defense and the ability to put up point enhanced they might run Saracens close. After all , a loss by seven points or less away from home for a losing bonus point isn’t the end of the world for Munster
I expect Saracens to win, but not by the 16 point margin of April.
8 points Saracens to win by 1-12 points at 13/8 with Ladbrokes/Coral
Relegation
It is highly unlikely that Saracens will be relegated from the Gallagher Premiership this season. The current champions will almost certainly stay up giving the rest a 35-point head-start such is their strength in depth across the squad.
That spells trouble for the Leicester Tigers who were nearly relegated last season and just survived as Newcastle dropped into the Championship. Sides who might have expected to have struggled, for example promoted London Irish and Worcester, are competitive this season so it could well be that one of the domestic game’s bigger clubs will drop. Leicester have one win so far in four matches this season and are 22 points ahead of Saracens.
Leicester have a core of International players in May, Tuilagi, Ford, Youngs, Cole and Genge but squad depth lacks quality and most if not all of those players will be away on Six Nations duty from February. Beyond that though the club doesn’t have a coherent playing identity or depth in coaching either. As a result they lack both organisation and resilience. It is a tough recipe in the toughest Premiership for many seasons
Every now and then, Leicester managed to drive a maul, but there wasn’t much else for the visitors to fall back on. Their lineout was a car-crash — a problem area crying out for Steve Borthwick’s expertise, whenever the England forwards coach makes his move to Welford Road.
It could be that another coaching change is on the way,Geordan Murphy’s regime cannot remain intact if it doesn’t at least look like the players are unified and driven to perform more consistently. Wasps are also on the list of clubs in trouble but they appear to have slightly more quality.
If Leicester do drop, a stay of more than one season in the Championship is unlikely given the huge gap in resources from the top to the second tier in English rugby. It is to be hoped that such a drop will lead to the wholesale rebuilding changes on and off the field needed to restore the Tigers to long term competititveness.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.
From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
