Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Everton v Tottenham
- Rugby Union, the 2019 World Cup Final
- Racing, Flat racing at Newmarket and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby
- NFL Week 9 of the 2019 NFL season
- Formula One, the United States Grand Prix in Austin
- Golf, The WGC-HSBC Champions Tournament in China.
- Tennis, The ATP Paris Masters
- Cricket, England’s tour of New Zealand starts with a T20 series including at Wellington on Sunday
Free tip
Reading v Millwall, Championship Saturday 3pm
Two teams in bottom half of the Championship meet on Saturday, and both have new managers, Mark Bowen at Reading and Gary Rowett at Millwall.
Jose Gomes was replaced at Reading after finishing 20th in the division last season and with two wins at the time so far this season. Overall Reading only won 23%of their games under Gomes. In Bowen’s two games they have beaten Preston 1-0 and drawn at QPR 2-2. Generally scoring goals has been a problem for Reading since the season they finished 3rd under Jaap Stam. Reading have 14 goals in 13 league games this season and scored 46 and 49 goals in the last two seasons in a 46 game season.
Millwall climbed to 15th last weekend with a home win v Stoke last weekend in the first game for new manager Gary Rowett, who took over following 4 year tenure of Neil Harris. Millwall have won 4 and drawn 6 of 14 league games though away form has been poor. They haven’t won away for 12 league games going back to last season, and have scored six away goals in seven away games this season.
Nevertheless my instinct here is to want to oppose Reading with only 14 goals in 13 games and two wins in six home games, the best available price of 11/10 feels very short indeed. Millwall 13/5 is the best price, with the draw at 12/5.
In what is likely to be a low scoring game I was struck when randomly watching the highlights of the Stoke win last weekend at the form of the talented winger Jed Wallace for Millwall who shredded the statuesque Stoke back four and presumably will be a major threat on the counter here. Wallace has five goals this season, four of them penalties.
10 points Millwall to win at Reading 13/5 Bet365, 3.54 Matchbook 5/2 William Hill
Turning Japanese
Next year Japan will become the first country in the world that has staged a rugby World Cup, the Olympics and the football World Cup this century.
With regard to Rugby for a long time World Rugby as an organisation was a closed shop. The tier one nations rarely play sides in Tier 2 outside World Cups, the best players are poached under more lax nationality rules and the funding disparities make securing more depth and a truly competitive global game difficult to achieve. Really the only change in the competition landscape was Argentina’s introduction to the Rugby Championship in 2012. This status quo allows the top nations to make a lot of money but doesn't help promote the game to develop elsewhere.
Japan’s thrilling host performance in the World Cup just endng might be a turning point. Japan should be in demand to join a major yearly competition and of course both the Rugby Championship and the Six Nations will those mooted the most.
In terms of logistical issues, Japan is a long way from Europe and Australiasia/Argentina however both Japan and other sides could play blocks of away matches to cut down on travel. Japan in either competition would produce financial and commercial benefits for both the organisers and the competitor teams.Just under 30 million people in Japan watched the match against South Africa with an audience share of almost 50%, so the appetite for the game has clearly been stimulated.
World Rugby is constantly debating between expanding into new areas and consolidating strong countries, which is what France 2023 is all about. Talk of a World Cup in the USA in 2027 indicates that thinking is moving towards the latter approach again to expand the game.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Tottenham
- Rugby Union, the 2019 World Cup Semi Finals
- Racing, Flat racing at Doncaster, Newbury and Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso
- NFL Week 8 of the 2019 NFL season
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Golf, The Portugal Masters on the European Tour and on the US Tour the Zozo Championship in Japan.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Vienna and Basel
Free tip
Tranmere v Doncaster League One Saturday 3pm
Last season’s League Two play-off winners Tranmere are 20th in League one in their first season back at this level with a record of 3 wins 4 draws and 7 defeats having conceded 27 goals. Specifically at home they have 2 wins and 3 draws from 7 matches.One of those wins was an early season 5-0 result against Bolton’s youth team.
Doncaster made the League One play-offs last season and this season are under new manager Darren Moore formerly of West Brom. They sit sixth in the league with six wins and four draws from their thirteen matches. They have only conceded 14 goals in 13 games.
Doncaster are renowned as a footballing side, moving the ball quickly and effective counter-attackers. Until Tuesday night Doncaster had only scored 15 goals in the league so far this season though, both top goalscorers ( Sadler and Coppinger with 4 and 3) are midfielders. The main strikeforce from last season John Marquis (21 goals) and loanee Mallik Wilks (16 goals and 12 assists) left. Moore only arrived three weeks before the start of the season with limited time for goal-scorer recruitment in the back end of the transfer window.
On Tuesday Doncaster proceeded to beat Southend 7-1 away from home playing against10 men for 84 minutes and 9 men for 40 minutes. The same evening Tranmere lost 5-0 at Sunderland. Researching this match before those games after those results it gives this recommendation a feel of some recency bias. Nevertheless odds against here for the stronger side are worth a look
10 points Doncaster Rovers to beat Tranmere Rovers 5/4 Betfred and Coral/Ladbrokes
Deadline Day
In the NFL Over the first seven years of the current Collective Bargaining agreement with the league and the players, just eight players, and six non-quarterbacks, were traded for first-round picks.
Since 2018 there has been a major change in the magnitude of player for draft pick trades. Eight have taken place in the last 16 months. The first major change is that star players are increasingly available for trades whereas previously they weren’t, a second is that struggling teams are willing to aggressively pursue rebuilds (Raiders, Dolphins, for example)
The eight blockbuster trades since 2018 are
Patriots trade Brandin Cooks to Rams for 2018 first-round pick.
Raiders trade Khalil Mack to the Bears for a package including 2019 first-round pick and 2020 first-round picks.
Raiders trade Amari Cooper to the Cowboys for a 2019 first-round pick.
Giants trade Odell Beckham and Olivier Vernon to the Browns for a 2019 first-round pick, more picks and players.
Seahawks trade Frank Clark to the Chiefs for a 2019 first-round pick and other picks
Dolphins trade Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills to the Texans for 2020 and 2021 first-round picks other picks and players.
Dolphins trade Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers for a 2020 first-round pick and other picks.
Two weeks ago Jaguars trade Jaen Ramsey to the Rams for two first round picks plus.
NFL General managers had previously valued high draft picks like they would a star player. That has been questioned in recent years with a mixed hit rate on draft picks at the back end of the first round, so the line of thinking for teams in contention is that if they can acquire a player that will help them get into the playoffs‚ and your pick is likely to be 21-32 you can justify dealing trading your future high draft pick for a known commodity.
Player behaviour has also changed mirroring the experience of the NBA where players more routinely force their way out of teams, with players often expressing dissatisfaction on social media and causing teams distractions. For start players, this is beginning to work in the NFL
NFL coach job security has always been low. Now, General managers are under more pressure for short term results too, the likelihood of getting years to conduct slow rebuilds is low. Draft picks can take time to pan out, time that team managements generally don’t now have. General Managers are often analytics led, younger and more aggressive.
The NFL Trade deadline is early next week. Look out for more big moves
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the 2019 World Cup Quarter Finals
- Racing, Flat racing at Ascot, Catterick and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford
- NFL Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, The Open de France on the European Tour and on the US Tour the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges.
- Tennis, The ATP Kremlin Cup in Moscow and the Antwerp and Stockholm Opens
Free tip
Northampton Town v Salford City League Two Saturday 3pm
Salford City go into the game 14th, in a so far inconsistent first season in the Football League. Until they beat Cambridge at home 1-0 last weekend, which followed a win at Walsall the week before they hadn’t won back to back league games.
Overall they have won four and drawn five of 13 games and have conceded 20 goals, only bottom of the table Morecambe have seen more attempts at goal against them. 8 of the 20 goals conceded against them were in successive defeats 4-0 and 4-1 by Crewe and Forest Green respectively, the sides currently at the top of the division alongside Exeter.
10 of Salford’s 16 league goals have been scored away from home
Northampton under Keith Curle are 18th, having only won 4 of 13 games scoring only 14 goals in the process. They have no wins in their last four games.
Looking at prices for the match Northampton 6/5 looks very short. Salford at 5/2+ an interesting price
10 points Salford City to beat Northampton Town 13/5 Bet365 5/2 SportingBet and BetfairSportsbook
Drafty
When the NFL adopted free agency in 1994 owners were afraid of losing star players. To mitigate this risk and ensure teams retained some control over players, the league simultaneously instituted the franchise tag as well as compensatory picks. Using a formula based on salary, playing time, and post-season team honours, 32 picks in the upcoming draft, between the third and seventh rounds (and a maximum of four per team), are distributed as compensation to teams that lost more good free agents than they signed the previous offseason.
Changes in the last 10 years have further exacerbated the players’ concerns, notably in 2011 The new rookie wage scale is adopted and in 2017 the NFL begun to allow teams to trade comp picks.
The system of compensatory picks serves to squeeze the market for top free agents and make marginal players on the fringe of rosters even more disposable.
The NFL’s hard financial cap for player rosters means that the decision to re-sign a free agent doesn’t equal picking between having that player and having nothing. It means the decision between having that player and having the cap space to use on another player.
Not every free agent qualifies for the compensatory pick formula. players that qualify are good enough that they will get picked up by other teams. However, the compensatory picks doled out represent 32 opportunities that are being extended to players not already in the league.
The player who is getting squeezed is the second-tier veteran player. The teams know how cheap the draft picks are, since the advent of the rookie wage scale more than half of seventh-round draft picks have lasted on the roster through a second season.
The rookie wage scale allows teams to bring in quality players they can dramatically under-pay and compensatory picks increase the numbers of players drafted. The environment for second tier free agents is therefore harsh. Less leverage and NFL careers are shortening as a reulst as rosters get younger, outside the star players.
With the NFL trade deadline looming it is worth watching for players released by rebuilding teams. If they are picked up elsewhere one of the benefits to the team releasing them will be the possibility of extra compensatory picks next year.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, European Championship Qualifying including the Czech Republic v England on Friday night
- Rugby Union, the 2019 World Cup Pool matches conclude with five remaining matches over the weekend
- Racing, Flat racing at Newmarket, Wolverhampton and York and over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham
- NFL Week 6 of the 2019 NFL season
- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka
- Golf, The Italian Open on the European Tour and on the US Tour the Houston Open.
- Tennis, The ATP Shanghai Masters
Free tip
League One football Peterborough v Lincoln (Saturday 3pm)
So far this season Peterborough have 26 goals in League one in 10 games including games where they have scored 6,4 and 3 goals twice. The most attacking side in the division they invested in the summer, signing Mo Eisa from Bristol City for a club record to add to Ivan Toney and left winger Marcus Maddison and between them these three players have 24 goals so far this season
Last weekend Peterborough drew 3-3 at Wycombe, whose manager described them as “the best side we have played by a country mile” but Peterborough are defensively vulnerable too. Manager Darren Ferguson said “It’s clear where our problems are. Conceding sloppy goals is our Achilles heel right now”
It is Lincoln’s first season back in League one and having lost the Cowleys to Huddersfield and with the appointment of Michael Appleton as their new manager returned to form last weekend beating Sunderland 2-0 after losing 3 of their previous 4 games. Lincoln have scored 17 goals this season and Tyler Walker (on loan from Forest) has six of those goals
In Peterborough’s matches this season over 3.5 goals has occurred in six of the ten games. Here that is 2/1 plus.
10 points Over 3.5 goals Peterborough v Lincoln at 21/10 Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 BetVictor and RedZoneSports, 15/8 Betfred
Tank
Through five weeks of the NFL season the Miami Dolphins have lost all their games and are one of the first examples in the NFL of a “tank” in action, a tank being a team accepting it will lose many games so as to be in a position to draft a franchise quarterback next year and rebuild the franchise and trading away many of its better players for future considerations to ensure the roster is barely competitive in the short term. Tanking is a very frequent occurrence in the NBA and MLB and of course is non-existent in many sports we are familiar with that have leagues with relegation
In the NFL though Miami’s approach has raised concerns for the current roster of players in Miami who are physically paying the price and putting bad film on tape because they’re not trying to win and it potentially shortens their careers.
The owner, General Manager, and maybe the potential future coach are going to benefit from this, but not these players who will be moved on as the team rebuilds.
Owner Stephen Ross essentially has admitted to a big-picture tank job in multiple private conversations, without ever expressly calling it that. Publicly, he recently came extremely close to admitting it.
“The goal isn’t to try to patch some holes to go 9-7 and make the play offs.I want to compete for and win Super Bowls. We took an objective look at our situation at the end of last year and realised that we were a long way away from where we need to be. Our roster, salary-cap situation, everything. We’ve won 72 games in 10 years and that’s just not good enough. I take responsibility for that, and as I said back in March, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. The moves that have been made were all made in the best interest in trying to build a championship team”
The Dolphins decided instead to take one (or more) steps back in the hopes of at some point becoming a consistent winner. In trading away Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick as well as other moves the Dolphins have a haul of draft picks for the next two years that includes three first round selections next year and two in 2021, and three bona fide star quarterback prospects coming out of college in Tua Tagovailoa AND Justin Herbert in 2020 and Trevor Lawrence in 2021.
The NFL knows that a real temptation to tank exists in the NFL, especially in December after teams are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention and management decides to “evaluate” young players and other backups, in the unspoken hopes of landing a higher spot in the draft orde but can’t and won’t acknowledge that tanking is even a possibility as the the integrity of games becomes undermined.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th October
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Leicester City
- Rugby Union, the 2019 World Cup Pool matches continue in Japan including England v Argentina on Saturday
- Racing, Flat racing at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Fontwell and the Prix De L'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday
- NFL Week 5 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, The Spanish Open on the European Tour and on the US Tour the Shriners Hospital for Children event at TPC Summerlin.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Beijing and Tokyo.
Free tip
League One Fleetwood Town v Ipswich Town (Saturday 3pm)
Ipswich Town were relegated from the Championship last season and are playing in the third flight for the first time since 1957. Ten games into the new season they look well placed to bounce back immediately, unbeaten and having won seven of those games. They have only conceded five goals too.
In the off-season Paul Lambert’s side acquired the prolific lower league goal-scorer James Norwood from Tranmere and he (and also strike parter Kayden Jackson) has five goals so far this season. It is a strong side for this level, with Alan Judge playing behind the front two and Luke Garbutt on loan from Everton at left wing back who on return from injury now has 3 goals in four starts this season
The trip to Fleetwood this weekend sees 3rd play first. Under Joey Barton last season they finished 11th and Fleetwood have won six of their ten league games this season and Irish Striker Paddy Madden has six goals.
Fleetwood are 6/4 favourites for the game and the draw is best priced 12/5. The 15/8 widely available about the division leaders though does look interesting. With a very solid back line and plenty of service to two regular goal-scorers I think they have every chance of extending their lead at the top of the table
10 points Ipswich to beat Peterborough 11/5 Bet365 and 2/1 generally
Scores on the Doors
Steve Smith of course had a sensational Ashes series with 774 runs in 4 matches at an average of 110 with three hundreds and three fifties, some 300+ runs ahead of the next highest scoring batsman on other side. His performance is even more extraordinary when we consider what a historically tough era this is for batsmen. In 2018-19 to date the average runs per wicket in Test cricket is 27, the lowest for 62 years.
A number of reasons contribute to that. The Ashes series for example featured Duke balls with a pronounced seam that made batting high in the order especially fraught, evidenced by the paucity of opening partnerships throughout. Through the series five bowlers took 20 wickets plus. Batsmen’s techniques are clearly more attuned to one day formats and across many sides (Bumrah, Rabada, Amir, Cummins and Hazlewood, Broad and Archer, Boult etc just to name the obvious examples) it is a vintage era for fast bowling.
Over and above these factors though the use of analytics and data is beginning to transform strategy in the long form of the game as it did in T02 cricket. Australian head coach Justin Langer is at the forefront of this, as he was with the Perth Scorchers in the Big Bash.
In the 2015 Ashes Australia routinely picked Starc, Cummins and Pattinson, their fastest line up. In that series their line up went for almost 4 runs an over. This time round Starc did not play until the fourth test, an obvious sign of the depth of their fast bowling resources, Pattinson was rotated and Australia picked Hazlewood and Siddle more often than not, preferring to target relentless line and length against a fallible and impatient batting line up. In 2019 Australia went at under three runs an over.
Even before the advent of data, teams were videoing batsmen and bowlers were poring over the footage working out the best way to dismiss them, Data has given empirical confirmation to observations and accelerated the extent to which weaknesses are identified early. This may well be part of the larger story of average scores trending lower in Test cricket.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
