Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup Final, Manchester City v Watford
- Racing, Flat racing at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk. Also over the jumps at Bangor and Uttoxeter.
- Cricket, the fifth ODI against Pakistan in Leeds on Sunday.
- Golf, the USPGA Championship at Bethpage Black on Long Island.
- Tennis, ATP Rome.
A week until the French Open Tennis (26th May to 9th June)
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Royal Ascot (18th-22nd June )
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Cricket World Cup (May 30th-July 14th)
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Free tip
FA Cup Final Manchester City v Watford
Manchester City play this weekend’s FA Cup final on the verge of an unprecedent domestic treble after their wins in the Carabao Cup and defending their Premier League title
Unsurprisingly for a side that that comes into the game off the back of a 14 games unbeaten league run, and only conceded 23 goals in the 38 game league season, they are strong favourites to beat a Watford side that finished eleventh in the Premier League and who limped to the end of the season on three successive league defeats.
Odds for the match, outright, are Manchester City 1/5, the Draw 6/1 and Watford 14/1. Not much to go at there you would think. In other markets City half time/full time is 4/6 and over 2.5 goals 1-2.
Moving from team to player markets, specifically first goal scorer, and we see that obviously City players dominate the front of the betting
Aguero 14/5 (21 Premier League goals, 32 all competitions in 2018-19)
Jesus 100/30 (7 and 19 goals)
Sterling 4/1 (17 and 23 goals)
I am not sure Jesus will start (or Sane or Mahrez who are the next two in the betting)
I am specifically interested in Sterling (though equally could make a case for Bernardo Silva at 9/1 and Aymeric Laporte at 33/1 as an outsider from set-pieces) and Sterling’s ability to play either flank and find space with a goal-scoring, specifically more effective finishing, impact to his game really added in the last season specifically at the far post with service provided by both Silvas and, when fit, De Bruyne.
Recommendation: 8 points Raheem Sterling first goalscorer 4-1 Bet365, SportingBet, RedZone Sports
Premier Parity?
Three years ago Leicester City won the Premier League, in part helped by a “down” year for the majority of the “Big Six”, with 81 points. This season Liverpool have finished second with 97 points losing only one game. The average number of points for second place in the last ten seasons has been 81. The Premier League’s top accounted for 18% of all the points won in England’s top flight this season. That is a level of dominance that has not been seen since the late 1890s. Between 2004 and 2014, Opta recorded 26 matches in which one team had at least 70% of the possession. There were 29 such occasions in this season just finished alone. Whilst other Premier League sides can beat the 3rd-6th placed sides on occasions, on this season’s evidence its unlikely to happen against the top two teams from which there is a gap to the other top six sides. Furthermore the gap between sixth (Manchester United) and seventh (Wolves) places is 9 points.
In the intervening years since Ranieri and co any suggestions of a closing of the gap between the Big Six and the rest has been laid aside as the superiority of the top sides has accelerated. There has been an influx of managerial talent, with five of the six teams changing manager and the other side who haven’t, Tottenham, now in a £1bn stadium.
Between them, the six have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on players. Each club has broken its transfer record at least once. In Europe there has been a resurgence too, with both Champions League and Europa League finalists this season English, and neither of them the Manchester clubs.
From next season the financial structural trend favouring the top six is reinforced by changes to the distribution of international television income with more revenue awarded depending on where a team finishes, rather than simply shared equally. An idea that came at a time when the elite teams were not doing so well in Europe, and they felt in part that was because the league was too competitive.
With the finishing positions now known, estimates are that Liverpool will earn most from Premier League central funds this season, around £150 and more than Manchester City because of more games on TV. Huddersfield’s £94m will the lowest figure so a ratio of 1.6:1 top to bottom. From next season and the new overseas deal that ratio is expected to be around 1.8:1 which is another increase in the trend of the top clubs getting more money and likely to reinforce success amongst comparatively few.
The recent leak that plans are being drawn up for a new Champions League closed shop from 2024 are also likely to be another challenge for clubs on the outside looking in hoping to achieve parity as the proposals would turn the Champions League into a competition dominated by a small group of elite clubs and leave as few as four of its 32 places available for teams from leagues in Europe’s 55 national federations.
If approved, they would result in a Champions League that could render national competitions nearly irrelevant, impose significant barriers to entry for teams outside the game’s current elite and deepen the divide between the top six clubs and the rest of the sides in the Premier League.
The idea, that one freak season apart, that the top six is an unattainable goal for other clubs is perhaps the new normal, no matter how close Everton, Wolves and Leicester think they will get next season.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include the title deciders, Manchester City at Brighton and Liverpool at home to Wolves.
- Racing, Flat racing at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield, Nottingham and Thirsk. Also over the jumps at Hexham and Warwick.
- Cricket, the 2019 IPL final in Hyderabad on Sunday and the second ODI against Pakistan in Southampton on Saturday.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup final between Leinster and Saracens at St James’ Park.
- Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona
- Golf, the AT&T Byron Nelson on the USPGA. On the European tour the British Masters at Hillside.
- Tennis, ATP Madrid Open.
French Open Tennis (26th May to 9th June)
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Free tip
The 2019 USPGA
Brought forward this year from its traditional spot as the final major championship of the season, the USPGA is held this year at the Long Island Public Curse, Bethpage Black, which is renowned as a severe test. My aim once again here is to identify a value outsider and complement Neil Channing’s overall analysis usually published the night before the start of the tournament.
Bethpage is a parkland course that is both long and narrow. At the last US Open, the PGA set up was really tough with long rough really penalising wayward striking. Unlike the Masters where you obviously need a long hitter and a good scrambler/putter this is less of a putting test and more of a test of tee to green accuracy.
At his peak in 2002 Tiger Woods won the US Open here, at a time when he was a longer hitter than most of the field but most of the winners at the course since fall into the “good ball strikers” category such as Glover at the 2019 US Open and Reed in the 20165 Barclays. Long enough to carry the fairway bunkers that are found on a lot of holes but straight and accurate onto fairways and greens.
The key stats I am looking at are Strokes gained off the tee and tee to green, with a secondary eye on driving distance and less of a focus on the short game.
My search for value alighted on Gary Woodland who led the USPGA going into the final round last year and eventually finished tied for 6th at Bellerive.
Woodland is long (tied 9th on tour for driving distance) but more importantly shows up in the strokes gained stats: Ranked 6th in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained: tee to green and furthermore 7th in greens in regulation over the USPGA season to date. As a counterpoint, he’s way down on the putting stats which probably accounts for that whilst 2018-19 form is ok with two second places, he hasn’t won. His overall consistency means he is 8th in the Fed Cup standings.
Best of all he’s up in plenty of places at 66-1. A more fancied player, Bryson De Chambeau (albeit he putts better) has a similar profile, and is listed at 25-1.
A slight fly in the ointment is that Woodland withdrew from the Wells Fargo last weekend after three rounds, with a stomach virus from which he had apparently been suffering before the tournament. A fortnight if needed to recuperate allows enough time to get right for this major though.
Of course once again I am writing before the marketing departments kick into gear and we (hopefully) get offered extra places and in this case I would take 8-10 places at around 50-1 over the 66-1 if it was on offer, but for the purposes of this I will record at the best terms currently available not accounting for SkyBet who are already up at 10 places 1/5 the odds.
10 points each way Gary Woodland to win the 2019 USPGA: 70/1 Bet365 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 66-1 SkyBet (1/5 first 10) Coral (1/5 first 7) others at 1/4 first five.
Capped
The quickest way to win in the NFL is to have a good quarterback. Beyond finding the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, the second-best path to success is to spot the next trend and then adjust as quickly as possible.
One of the biggest changes to the sport over the past few years has been to the salary cap. In the past six years, the cap has risen from $120 million to $188 million. Meanwhile, after the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, rookie contracts became significantly cheaper, and opened up even more cap space. The competitive balance of the league is changing drastically because of it.
All the room to spend has changed the way teams think about money and the aversion to seemingly overpriced free agency contracts of a few years ago is a thing of the past. Free agency is now a legitimate team-building strategy.
The first team to benefit from changing their approach was the Super Bowl 50 winning Broncos who spent big on outside players such as Aqib Talib, Peyton Manning, DeMarcus Ware, and Emmanuel Sanders, among others and won. More Recently the LA Rams followed the same approach in free agency and last season made the Superbowl.
As with any structural change, there are of course unintended consequences, too. Teams like the 49ers or Browns waited until they felt they can compete before they spend any substantial money. For several seasons they made for easy victories when they appeared on another team’s schedule. This off-season the Browns have begun to press the accelerator having drafted their quarterback, trading for Odell Beckham amongst others. They are now a team expected to be in play off contention this year and they still have $80m in unused space to go to the next stage for 2020. The Colts are already a play off team and have the biggest amount of cap space in the league at $106m. Elsewhere these three teams have drafted/acquired young quarterbacks and are turning to free agency to become competitive, the Jets $96m (LeVeon Bell the start of the process) Bills $79m and 49ers $67m.
All this is exciting for NFL watchers and not just supporters of the teams themselves. Teams can move from also rans into contenders quickly, and free agency and trades creates column inches and speculation during each long off-season
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Leicester and Newcastle v Liverpool as the battle for the title nears its conclusion.
- Racing, Flat racing at Doncaster, Goodwood, Newmarket (Guineas Weekend) and Thirsk. Also over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
- Cricket, the 2019 IPL continues and the start of the England International season with a T20I against Pakistan in Cardiff on Sunday.
- Snooker, the final weekend of the World Championship continues at the Crucible
- Golf, the Wells Fargo Championship on the USPGA. On the European tour the Volvo China Open.
- Tennis, ATP Opens Estoril and Munich.
French Open Tennis (26th May to 9th June)
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Royal Ascot (18th-22nd June )
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Free tip
The 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket, Saturday 3pm) by Neil Channing
A great summer of cricket begins
In the run up to the 2019 World Cup beginning at the end of May England host Pakistan in a five matches ODI series as follows:
8th Day/Night, The Oval London
11th Southampton
14th Day/Night, Bristol
17th Day/Night Nottingham
19th Leeds
They go into the of the ICC rankings 6th in the format with England top, a rise that has been consistent since their early exit in the 2015 World Cup and subsequent changes to produce a much more aggressive strategy. They go into the forthcoming home world cup favourites.
Pakistan won the Champions Trophy in England in this format in 2017 beating England in the semi-finals but have been in poor form since including losing heavily at home to Australia 5-0 this winter, albeit a series in which 8 players were rested. They have had an injury blow in the absence of world class 20 year old leg spinner Shadab Khan and there are concerns about their middle order power hitting but the top of the order is strong and experienced and the fast bowling ranks well stocked. Fitness and fielding is also much improved under their Australian Head coach now in his third year in the job.
Since the 2017 Champions Trophy Pakistan have an economy rate of only 6.3 runs per over in the last ten overs of an ODI inning, second only to South Africa of the major teams
England have some selection with Billings out and Hales is suspended and out of the international summer. This is a team though that can still call upon Bairstow, Moeen and Buttler returning from the IPL plus being able to introduce Jofra Archer for his international debut to play alongside a team packed with all-rounders that has a lot of bases covered.
The format is under these regulations extremely friendly to batsmen and big totals, with two white balls an innings that rarely swing and batsman friendly wickets produced. English conditions can produce unexpected variables in any match with early morning starts but so far this season totals have been high across all formats in a dry early season spell.
I think a close series is likely. England’s weaknesses are the lack of a real match winning spinner and a tendency to produce an occasional poor performance out of nowhere.
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Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches 27th-28th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Chelsea
- Racing, Flat racing at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester and Ripon. Also over the jumps at Sandown including the Bet365/Whitbread. All weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- Cricket, the 2019 IPL continues
- Snooker, the World Championship continues at the Crucible
- Formula One, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku
- Golf, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana on the USPGA. On the European tour the Hassan Trophy in Morocco
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Barcelona and Hungary
- NFL, Draft weekend in Nashville
French Open Tennis (26th May to 9th June)
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Cricket World Cup (May 30th-July 14th)
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Royal Ascot (18th-22nd June )
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Free tip
The (Whitbread) Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown (Saturday 3.35pm) by Neil Channing.
Tiger Rolls
Tiger Woods’ 15th major, and fifth Masters title won a fortnight ago has to go down as one of the greatest sports stories ever. I am not sure I can tell you anything you don’t already know but I have a column to fill!
Woods had gone nearly 11 years since he won his last major, 14 years since last winning the Masters. At his lowest since he was ranked 1,199th in the World.
Woods lost his image to a sex scandal. He lost his health to four back surgeries that left him unable to get out of bed, much less swing a club, and he went two years without even playing a major. It was two years ago at the Masters when Woods said he needed a nerve block just to walk to the Champions Dinner. At that time, he thought his career is over. In the last year he has three top ten finishes in Majors.
He is now three Majors short of Nicklaus and with Pebble Beach and Bethpage next, both venues where he has won titles. The Masters was his 81st victory on the PGA Tour, one title away from the career record held by Sam Snead.
Amidst all the understandable emotion at Augusta and the huge fan reaction (Twitter was a year away from existence the last time he won a major) his Masters win is f course tremendous news for golf as a sport. By the time his peak years had passed it was estimated that the “Tiger Effect” had brought $1.6bn into the sport from a doubling of tournament prizes. Tiger is good for golf, other golfers and another potential growth leg for the sport.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
Easter Weekend Road to Riches Blog
Coming up over Easter weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham. 4-3 anyone?
- Racing, Flat racing at Brighton, Musselburgh and Nottingham. Also over the jumps at Carlisle, Haydock and Newton Abbot. All weather racing at Kempton Park.
- Rugby Union, the European Rugby Champions Cup Semi Finals
- Cricket, the 2019 IPL continues
- Snooker, the start of the World Championship at the Crucible
- Golf, The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo
Premier League Darts (Weekly until Thursday May 23rd)
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French Open Tennis (26th May to 9th June)
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Royal Ascot (18th-22nd June )
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Free tip
2019 World Snooker Championship
Over the last ten days the Snooker World Championship qualifiers have been taking place ahead of the start of the Championship tomorrow. Whether seventeenth in the rankings or an amateur, to reach the Crucible the 16 qualifiers have had to play three 19 frame matches.
Rehearsing the arguments I have made in previous years ahead of first round betting, there is more depth outside the top sixteen these days, and the qualifiers come to the Crucible battle hardened having won 30 frames to make it whereas much of the season is taken up with best of sevens and best of nines. This year the season’s lack of long match practice for many of the top sixteen is exacerbated because so many didn’t go deep in the China Open (best of 11 from the start, best of 21 final) recently.
In terms of first round betting, last year six Qualifiers beat their seeded opponents and over the last decade as many as eight have done so in a single year. In terms of betting opportunities its about matching up the qualifier with potential (preferably a young and up and coming player) with the vulnerable seed, on the basis of form in the second half of this season and in a few cases longer term.
These might include:
Mark Williams (ranked one, provisional rank seventh. Not wholly convinced of his motivation after last year, comes to the tournament having spent eleven months on the lash)
Kyren Wilson (little form since Ferrule problems in February)
Ding Junhui (no form, not as dedicated these days)
Shaun Murphy (18 months into a slide down the rankings. 1 year ranking is 47)
Stephen Maguire (temperament, very opposable)
But also might include Mark Selby. Selby has had a disappointing 2019 to date. In the 2018-19 season he won in China last autumn and made the semis in Northern Ireland but has one fourth round finish in this calendar year, including losing in China Open qualifiers in the most recent big tournament. Of course he’s a grinder but its notable that the Crucible has been very hit and miss for him in recent years. Three Championship wins, and four first or second round exits. He’s down to four in the Provisional rankings and goes into the Worlds at 10-1 in places, a price unprecedented for Selby in the last 6-7 years.
Then draw up a short list of qualifiers. Conventional wisdom is to avoid debutants (you never know if they will take to the Crucible, particularly younger debutants) of which there are 7 this year, but I think that can be less applicable in certain circumstances
I split them into two categories. Tthose on the cusp of the top 16
Dott (drew Bingham)
Perry (drew Gilbert)
Carter (drew Lisowski)
Of the less experienced players
Yuelong (drew Mark Allen)
Xintong (drew Selby)
Un Nooh (unfortunately for us as he was the one I wanted to be on most, drew Trump)
Pengfei (drew Maguire)
Donaldson (drew Kyren Wilson)
So refining the list further we get a shortlist of Pengfei, Donaldson, Xingtong, They are all debutants.
Five Chinese players made it through the Qualifying rounds and one of the most interesting is Zhao Xintong. Aged 22 he fell off tour in 2017-18 then won back in through Q school for the startof this season where he has since reached the semis of the China Championship and the Quarters of the Welsh Open.
He is a tremendously promising talent, a left handed flair player that doesn’t look like he will be over-awed by the circumstances with a happy go lucky temperament. In Qualifying he beat Noppon Saengkham, widely favoured to win the bracket, 10-5 then Matt Selt 10-4. Watching the Selt match on a grainy live stream Xingtong was brilliant. Quick, exciting, great long potter and break builder
Of course he’s a dog to beat Selby (and alternatives might be Pengfei at 2/1 and Donaldson at 11/4 both of which also match up value to opportunity)
The match is played on Easter Monday.
8 points Zhao Xintong to bet Mark Selby at 7/2 with William Hill. 100/30 Bet365
Too big to go down?
In the Gallagher Premiership the Leicester Tigers have conceded 30 points per game this season. No team concedes more points than the Tigers and only two teams score fewer points. By points difference they are the worst team in the Premiership, by tries against they are the worst team in the Premiership, by tries for they are the second worst team in the Premiership.
It’s a big story in Premiership rugby that they face the prospect of relegation. Leicester average crowds of 23,000 and play in the biggest of the single use club stadiums and won the Heineken Cup twice in this Millenium.
How can a team that currently includes Toomua, Tuilagi, May, Ford, Youngs, Genge and Cole find itself in such dire straits?
The answer over the long term lies in lack of stability, resource allocation under the salary cap and under successive coaches lies in defensive frailties.
In terms of lack of stability Leicester are on their fourth coach in as many years and for a long time there wasn’t a defence coach in place. Given the defence has been lacking for several seasons this was odd. The current coach Geordan Murphy is a fixture at the club but inexperienced.
On the pitch If you look at the number of players in and out of Leicester over the past six years you see about 70 in and more than 100 out. Nearly 40 players signed and left within a five-year period. This has created a sense of constant rebuilding.
Under the salary cap, below the star name players, squad depth of players below international standard but reliable week to week contributors does not compare with the best run cubs in the division.
Leicester have a powerful back line but struggle in back five of the pack and this is particularly notably in the back row where mistakes in defensive patterns are common. With the squad up to the salary cap, it hasn’t been easy to correct that and certainly not within a season with players under contract elsewhere.
The answers are likely to come from more experienced coaching with more depth of support and new defence strategies, a hard headed look at the cost of the marquee players and whether sums invested there could be apportioned elsewhere and this may yet have to happen outside the top division.
After they held on to beat Newcastle away 27-22 last Friday night, a match in which the threat of relegation made the whole game a very tense watch, Leicester have three games left starting with a winnable game at home against Bristol followed by tough looking trips to face Harlequins away and Bath at home. Newcastle play Northampton at home, Gloucester away and Bristol at home. Finally, Worcester have perhaps the hardest finishing schedule with Gloucester at home, Northampton away and Saracens at home. I think Worcester or Newcastle will be the team to go down but for Leicester its far too close for comfort.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders subscribers enjoyed a profitable 2018, betting £10 a point on matches would have won you £4,600 and he has now four successive profitable years. Over five years Betting £10 a point you would be winning over £23,000 with a 3.03% ROI Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
