Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Liverpool
- Racing, over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and all-weather racing at Chelmsford and Lingfield
- NFL the play-Offs Divisional Round
- Golf, on the USPGA, The Sony Open in Hawaii and on the European Tour the South African Open
- Tennis, The ATP ASB Classic in Auckland
- Cricket, the third Test between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth starts on Thursday
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Rugby resumes with the penultimate round of Pool matches
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 4 Sunday 3.15pm
Racing 92 v Munster
In the toughest pool in this year’s competition Munster go to La Defense and the new indoor stadium in Paris to face top of the pool Racing 92 who have three wins and a draw from their four games and are top of a pool also containing defending champions Saracens
Racing’s draw was in Limerick against Munster (21-21). With 17 points so far they have a big incentive to aim for the bonus point win as they are currently only potentially the fourth seed for the knockout stages, with the fourth best record of the four unbeaten sides behind Leinster, Toulouse and Ulster.
Munster have 11 points in the pool after their narrow loss at Saracens before Christmas. They are going to need to win their last two games to try to get one of the three best runners up spots.Their last pool game is at home to the struggling Ospreys where they would expect a bonus point win.
So far in the pool Racing have scored 131 points but have played the Ospreys twice scoring 40 points on each occasion, Munster have only scored 69 points but they have also only conceded 52 points. This speaks to a traditional strength, where Munster have a very solid 6-8-9 axis (O’Mahoney, Stander and Murray). However the team has more strings to its bow with the introduction of Stephen Larkham to the coaching team who has brought more flair to the back line with a willingness to off-load. This bodes well for their ability to score points in what will be perfect conditions here.
Racing are 8 point favourites on the spread, and should win, but Munster’s strong defense and greater point scoring potential mean they might keep it closer than many expect.
10 points Racing92 to win by 1-12 points at 8/5 with PaddyPower and 6/4 Betfred
Back to front?
Last off-season two Pro Football Focus data scientists published a report that focused on the impact of coverage and pass rush on an NFL team’s defense. They found that a defense’s coverage ability had a stronger correlation to success than its ability to rush the passer. Their conclusion ran counter to conventional wisdom as the majority of teams covet dominant pass rushers and pay them accordingly.
Heading into the Divisional round this weekend two of the three favourites in the AFC Baltimore and New England have constructed their defenses with the secondary rather than the pass rush in mind, as a way to seek to counter the modern offenseive trend in the NFl towards young big armed quarterbacks who thrive in the passing game.
Both teams allocated below average amounts from their 2019 salary cap to edge rushers and allowed high-priced rushers like Trey Flowers and Za’Darius Smith to leave in free agency. The Ravens used their extra resources to sign free safety Earl Thomas and trade for Marcus Peters in October. With Thomas and Peters joining Jimmy Smith and slot cornerback Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens now have four former first-round picks in their starting secondary. New England have star cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Devin McCourty, two of the highest-paid players at their respective positions.
The Ravens have pressured Quarterbacks in unconventional ways. Baltimore enter the play-offs with a 44% blitz rate, the highest in the league over the regular season. New England ranked ninth, at 29% but have also sent all-out blitzes with zero coverage to great effect all season. All that blitzing has allowed both teams to consistently create pressure without much elite edge-rushing talent.
In the medium term there can be downsides to this approach, year-to-year performance among defensive backs has a much higher variance than quality edge rushers. Some of the most effective units have exemplified the kind of impact a back-to-front construction can have when things go right. Conversely the 49ers for example, who were able to recruit the de facto defensive rookie of the year with the second pick in last year’s draft, Nick Bosa have shown this season that a great pass rush can still carry a defense. It could be that at the end of the month we will see two different approaches in action in the Super-Bowl.
The Play-offs are underway and in conjunction with Neil Channing write ups will be available at this link for £50
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
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English, Scottish and Euro Football
Plus Australian Open Tennis starts 20th January 2020
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the third round of the FA Cup
- Racing, over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and all-weather racing at Kempston and Lingfield
- NFL Wild Card weekend at the start of the Play-Offs
- Golf, on the USPGA, The tournament of Champions in Hawaii
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Brisbane, Shenzhen and Qatar
- Cricket, the second Test between South Africa and England in Cape Town
NFL Playoffs 2019 including Championship Games
The Play-offs begin this weekend and in conjunction with Neil Channing write ups will be available at this link for £50
The Super Bowl on Sunday 2nd February in Miami alone costs £25 at this Link
Free tip
FA Cup Ante-post
The third round of the FA Cup this weekend and a look at the ante-post market for the competition. In nine out of the last ten seasons a “top six” side has won the Cup (the exception Wigan in 2012-13) but also in that time a variety of lesser fancied sides have made the final, including Watford last year and before that Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Hull City, Stoke City and Portsmouth in the last decade alone.
Of course the Cup as a competition doesn’t have the prominence it had previously, and where I tend to start whittling down the short-list for value is to accept that those sides battling at either end of the table will have other priorities. We currently have seven sides in Europe (Champions League four, Europa League three including Wolves) and as many as nine sides within four points of the Premier League bottom three.
For the top sides squads are deep and strong, so they can fight on multiple fronts and significant team rotation can be withstood remaining competitive. It’s not uncommon to see lesser sides with other priorities approach the cup half-heartedly, both in team selection and on the field.
My short-list begins with the logic that if there are sides who aren’t going to hit the top six and aren’t going down then they should be all out to try to win the competition. This doesn’t always follow, I have regular head scratching episodes for these teams who prioritise three Premier League points a few days later over progressing in the cup.
Anyway this season’s shortlist
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Everton
Sheffield United are the best placed, in 8th position as I write having only lost 4 games so far this season, with a manager who emphasises game by game commitment and a squad primarily with a grounding in the lower leagues. I wouldn’t expect them to be challenging for the top six all season, but would expect them to take the Cup seriously.
Crystal Palace in 9th are a less solid proposition defensively but there is no reason why they shouldn’t look for a deep run in the competition.
Newcastle are 13th, with three wins in the run up to Christmas taking them to a position of safety. They are the least prolific of these sides, with 19 league goals in 17 games.
Everton under Ancelotti are presumably going to improve quickly but have the drawback here of being drawn away to Liverpool in the 3rd round.
The shape of the market is as follows
Manchester City 3-1
Liverpool 6-1
Tottenham 7-1
Chelsea 8-1
Manchester United 12-1
Leicester 14-1
Arsenal 14-1
Wolves 25-1
Everton 33-1
West Ham 40-1
Crystal Palace 50-1
Sheffield United 50-1
Newcastle 50-1
Bar 66-1
Each way terms are ½ 1,2. Of course it is the each way aspect that appeals as the likelihood is that the cup will be one by one of the big sides, and any selection is going to need some fortune with the draw. On value grounds though, and looking at where else teams might be focussed on, I will take these two sides
5 points each way Crystal Palace to win the FA Cup 50-1 generally
5 points each way Sheffield United to win the FA Cup 50-1 generally
The IPL Auction
The 2020 IPL which begins in April will be the 13th season of the competition which was won in 2019 by Mumbai Indians.
Pat Cummins became the most expensive overseas purchase in Indian Premier League (IPL) history as the Kolkata Knight Riders spent more than £1.6 million on the Australian fast bowler in the 2020 IPL Auction. Cummins, is number one in the ICC Test bowling rankings and his pace and accuracy marked him out as a standout player in the auction.
England limited overs captain Eoin Morgan was also bought by the Knight Riders most likely to be their captain and KKR look to be one of the early favourites with Morgan, Narine, Russell and Cummins their coterie of marquee overseas players.
There was also a big deal for all-rounder Sam Curran, who was bought by the Chennai Super Kings. Australian Glenn Maxwell, seam-bowling all-rounder Chris Morris of South Africa and West Indian left-arm fast bowler Sheldon Cottrell were three of the other marquee purchases as a number of high-profile names went under the hammer at the event in Kolkata.
Morgan will be joined at the Knight Riders by budding star Tom Banton, with the Somerset opening batsman set to get a first taste of T20 cricket’s premier franchise competition in 2020 after receiving a £110k deal.
Chris Jordan, Tom Curran, Chris Woakes and Jason Roy were also purchased in the auction, taking the English contingent in next year’s competition to 13. Harry Gurney, Jofra Archer, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali and Jos Buttler were all retained by their teams before the auction.
The five biggest signings of the auction were:
£1.6 million: Pat Cummins, Kolkata Knight Riders.
£1.15 million: Glenn Maxwell, Kings XI Punjab
£1.1 million: Chris Morris, Royal Challengers Bangalore
£910k: Sheldon Cottrell, Kings XI Punjab
£855k: Nathan Coulter-Nile, Mumbai Indians
England players will play in the IPL in 2020 as follows:
Royal Challengers Bangalore: Moeen Ali
Kings XI Punjab: Chris Jordan
Delhi Capitals: Jason Roy, Chris Woakes
Chennai Super Kings: Sam Curran
Sunrisers Hyderabad: Jonny Bairstow
Kolkata Knight Riders: Eoin Morgan, Tom Banton, Harry Gurney
Mumbai Indians:
Rajasthan Royals: Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes, Jofra Archer, Tom Curran
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
From January Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,361 All bets have an ROI +2.78%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,361 a 1134% increase
The Road to Riches: The Christmas period
Happy Christmas to all readers, after this weekend the next edition will be on Friday 3rd January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League Matches include Manchester City v Leicester City and Tottenham v Chelsea
- Racing, over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and all-weather racing at Lingfield
- NFL Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, The Australian PGA Championship
- Cricket, the first Test between South Africa and England at Centurion starts on Boxing Day
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)
By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link
Free tip
The Welsh Grand National, Friday 27th December Chepstow 12.30pm by Neil Channing
I'm having 12 Points each-way Elegant Escape at 9/2 1/4 1234 with SkyBet, Ladbrokes and Betfred.
The Brady Bunch
Despite three losses in their last six games, the New England Patriots remain in their usual December position: atop the AFC East and positioned as one of the top seeds in the conference, this time with a 11-3 record. Yet you can’t help but look at Tom Brady’s performance this season and feel like the six-time Super Bowl winning quarterback has lost a step. A closer examination shows Brady’s drop is dramatic enough to make him an average passer at best in 2019.
Brady has been named to the Pro Bowl 14 times in his 20-year career, but the 42-year-old isn’t as productive as he used to be and the Patriots overall are successful because of their strength on defense and special teams.
It’s easy to attribute Brady’s uneven performances this year to the loss of five-time Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski (retired), the failed Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown experiments and an overall lack of quality receiving options. However, Brady’s rate of “on target” throws has declined from 72% in 2018 to 65% this season, a number that is third worst amongst 26 quarterbacks with at least 300 passes thrown this year.
The truth is that Brady has been trending down for a few seasons. His completion rate is on a three-year decline, from close to a career high in 2016 (67%) to one of the lowest marks of his career in 2019 (61%).
The Patriots’ offense has been underwhelming. New England is averaging less than two points per drive, an average rate for this season and the fifth-lowest rate for the franchise since Coach Bill Belichick took over in 2000. The Patriots are also struggling in the red zone (49%, ranking 24th) and in goal-to-go situations (60%, 25th).
Alex Guerrero, Brady’s personal trainer, has speculated that the quarterback might play until he is 46 or 47. But if the current trends continue, the three-time NFL MVP could be retiring sooner than that.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.
From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League Matches include Arsenal v Manchester City
- Racing, over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford and all-weather racing at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the fourth round of Pol matches in this season’s Heineken Cup
- NFL Week 15 of the 2019 NFL season
- Golf, The Presidents Cup in Melbourne and the QBE Shootout
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)
Starting this weekend. By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link
Free tip
Saracens v Munster, European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 4 Round 4 Saturday 3pm
Pool 4 of this season’s Heineken Cup, containing Racing92, Saracens and Munster looked tough before the competition started and so it has proved for Saracens who now have two away losses in their first three games and as a result the defending tournament champions sit in third place in the pool.
Racing92 have won 3 from 3, most recently in Wales last weekend against a 14 man Ospreys side and with the same side visiting Paris this weekend will be confident of virtually wrapping up the pool.
That leaves Saracens and Munster likely scrapping for a best runners up spot in the knockout stages after the Six Nations.
Back in April a full strength Saracens side beat Munster 32-16 in the quarter finals of this competition. This season Saracens have played the competition so far without the majority of their International players, only recently back from the rugby world cup. In their 10-3 loss in Limerick last Saturday only Maro Itoje of the current international players took the field. Saracens, controversially with their salary cap infringements, do have a strong and balanced squad but going to Paris and Limerick without a full complement of players was a huge ask.
In Limerick, such were the terrible conditions in the second half as the wind and rain rolled in off the Atlantic, that is tempting to disregard the result. No points were socred in the second half after Munster had the wind advantage in the first half as as the weather worsened it became a game where it was best not to have the ball and it was impossible to claw back a deficit.
This weekend a number of Saracens’ international stars are due back, the weather forecast for London is ok and so in what is a must win game for Saracens we should expect the hosts to bounce back.
That is not to say it will be easy. Munster are a nuggety side, experienced and strong in defense with their 6-8-9 axis of O’Mahoney, Stander and Conor Murray top class. This season, where they have averaged over 26 points scored per game in seven Pro 14 games, they recruited former Australian international fly half Stephen Larkham as attack coach and he has added extra dimensions to their intended approach as conditions allow with offloads and expanision on the agenda.
So with a good defense and the ability to put up point enhanced they might run Saracens close. After all , a loss by seven points or less away from home for a losing bonus point isn’t the end of the world for Munster
I expect Saracens to win, but not by the 16 point margin of April.
8 points Saracens to win by 1-12 points at 13/8 with Ladbrokes/Coral
Relegation
It is highly unlikely that Saracens will be relegated from the Gallagher Premiership this season. The current champions will almost certainly stay up giving the rest a 35-point head-start such is their strength in depth across the squad.
That spells trouble for the Leicester Tigers who were nearly relegated last season and just survived as Newcastle dropped into the Championship. Sides who might have expected to have struggled, for example promoted London Irish and Worcester, are competitive this season so it could well be that one of the domestic game’s bigger clubs will drop. Leicester have one win so far in four matches this season and are 22 points ahead of Saracens.
Leicester have a core of International players in May, Tuilagi, Ford, Youngs, Cole and Genge but squad depth lacks quality and most if not all of those players will be away on Six Nations duty from February. Beyond that though the club doesn’t have a coherent playing identity or depth in coaching either. As a result they lack both organisation and resilience. It is a tough recipe in the toughest Premiership for many seasons
Every now and then, Leicester managed to drive a maul, but there wasn’t much else for the visitors to fall back on. Their lineout was a car-crash — a problem area crying out for Steve Borthwick’s expertise, whenever the England forwards coach makes his move to Welford Road.
It could be that another coaching change is on the way,Geordan Murphy’s regime cannot remain intact if it doesn’t at least look like the players are unified and driven to perform more consistently. Wasps are also on the list of clubs in trouble but they appear to have slightly more quality.
If Leicester do drop, a stay of more than one season in the Championship is unlikely given the huge gap in resources from the top to the second tier in English rugby. It is to be hoped that such a drop will lead to the wholesale rebuilding changes on and off the field needed to restore the Tigers to long term competititveness.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.
From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
The Road to Riches Weened of 7th-8th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League Matches include Manchester City v Manchester United
- Racing, over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and all-weather racing at Wolverhampton
- NFL Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season
- Rugby Union, the third round of pool matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup
- Golf, On the European Tour the Mauritius Open and on the USPGA The Hero Golf Challenge in the Bahamas
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 13th 2019 - Jan 1st 2020)
By Nigel Seeley, subscription costs £50 via this link
Free tip
Heineken Cup Rugby Pool round 3 Northampton v Leinster 1pm Saturday
A match between the two teams at the top of Pool three, and both will be expecting to make the knock-out stages. This is the first of two games between the two sides in consecutive weeks as rounds 3 and 4 of the pool stages see sides play each other home and away.
Both sides are unbeaten in the pool so far. Leinster beat Benetton 33-19 then won on a wet day in Lyon 13-6 in round 2.
Northampton beat Lyon 25-14 at home before winning in Italy 35-32 at Benetton thanks to a last minute penalty from Dan Biggar.
Leinster are four times winners of the competition, the last time two years ago before losing to Saracens in the final last year and went into this year second favourites to win it again. Their players form the core of the Irish National side, under coaching team Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster and their recent strength emerged from a rebuilding period in 2014-15 helped by the emergence of a lot of talent through the IRFU supported academy system. This saw players like Ryan, Larmour, Byrne and Ringrose begin to complement established player such as Sexton, Furlong, Henshaw and Kearney. This season they are top of the Pro 14 A division with six wins from six games.
Northampton were in the doldrums for several seasons but have been flying this year, joint top of the Premiership with three wins from four games scoring 15 tries, 4 more than any other side. Their coach Chris Boyd joined the Premiership after a three-year stint overseeing Ardie Savea, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara and co at the Hurricanes, he held assistant coaching roles with Wellington, the Sharks in South Africa and the Tonga national team at the 2011 Rugby World Cup. Then there were three years at the helm of New Zealand Under-20 between 2012 and 2015.
The approach Northampton adopt is very expansive, with a high ambition to play from all areas of the field. They don’t kick a lot, as is the norm in modern rugby and the intent to attack leads to high volumes of opportunities but also a lot of turnovers lost.
It may be a year early for Northampton in this competition especially coming up against an experienced hardened team like Leinster. Northampton’s weakness is that opponents target them with breakdown aggression and set-piece squeezing such as in their only loss so far to Bath, who took this approach and Leinster have the forwards and the tactical analysis, plus enormous European and International experience to do this
Leinster are 6 point favourites on the handicap and I expect them to slow this one down, grind it out, force Northampton to play from deep and profit from errors. The winning margin appeals as I expect Leinster to win narrowly
8 points Leinster to beat Northampton by 1-12 points at 15/8 with Betfair Sportsbook 9/5 PaddyPower, expect more firms up through to tomorrow
MVP.
One of the most exciting parts of this NFL season has been the progression of the former college Heisman trophy winning Baltimore Ravens Quarterback Lamar Jackson, still only 22 years old, to a position where he is the overwhelming favourite to win the NFL’s MVP award at the end of the season. As a corollary, as I write the Ravens have overtaken the Patriots as Super-bowl favourites.
Drafted last year right at the end of the first round, only the fifth quarterback to be taken, with doubts about his size and durability as well as ability as a passer. Some analysts projected him as a wide receiver in the NFL, one team asked him to work out at that position.
He was introduced into the line-up midway through last season within a game-plan that didn’t ask him to take risks passing and emphasised his brilliant running ability which led to six rushing touchdowns as the Ravens made it to the play-offs.
This season, helped by superb roster construction (notably the recruitment of running back Mark Ingram and the drafting of deep threat wide receiver Marquise Brown) and innovative game-planning (and a coaching team deeply versed in analytics) Jackson has taken huge steps forward. The Ravens have ten wins, including beating four front runners for the post season — Seattle, New England, the 49ers and Houston — by a combined 68 points. The Ravens have now won 8 consecutive games, tied for the longest winning streak in franchise history.
Jackson leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 25 and has become the first player to register 3000 passing yards and 1,500 rushing yards across his first two seasons, as well as the first to produce 50 rushing yards and four passing touchdowns in back-to-back games. He leads quarterbacks in rushing with 977 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging a league-high 7.1 yards per carry. He is expected to break Michael Vick's single-season quarterback rushing record next month. In addition he is a leader on and off the field and the team is set up for a great run for several years to come.
StattoBets Dave Joins Betting Emporium
For December Stattobets write ups and bets will be included in the Brodders section so monthly subscribers will have access to both Stattobets and Brodders write ups and bets.
From January 2019 Stattobets write ups and bets will be available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 pcm and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. Stattobet's free November write ups will be here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,319 All bets have an ROI +3.3%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,319 a 1107% increase
