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World Championship Darts
Stattobets on Darts - FREE World Championship Preview and bets below
In the 2024 Darts Season (includes 2024 World Champs) finalised at 28 events covered, 5866pts advised for +371 units across 601 bets. 6.3% profit
All Stattobets darts bet total points 17632 profit +1138.70 ROI + 6.46%
Last year the World Champs returned a massive 44% profit!
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World Darts Championships
The draw for the World Darts Championships was done yesterday, although we did have a fair idea who would end up where following the conclusion of the Players Championships. It’s therefore no surprise to see the biggest talking point – a potential semi-final clash between Luke Littler and Luke Humphries. That of course means a heavy-weight top half – anyone who wants to win the title from quarters one and two would need to not only have progressed against Littler or Humphries in the earlier rounds, but then probably also beat the other over a best of 11 sets, and then win a best of 13 sets final against the best player from the bottom half. That sounds a right feat.
That’s great news for e/w backers in the bottom half, but even that looks an interesting debate given that Michael van Gerwen and Gary Anderson have been drawn into a potential fourth round battle, and Ross Smith is in their quarter, while quarter three looks comparatively winnable.
What to expect if you follow @Statto through Christmas
If you sign up for the StattoBets service through Christmas, you can expect us to find bets in plenty of matches. We focus on match result, correct score and 180s betting, and you’ll also get any football that Dave writes about as well. In terms of how the darts tend to do, we’ve won at 6.3% over the full 2024 season which is about where it’s been since we started in 2019 (5.8% overall). We tipped 84 bets during the 2024 World Championships and 78 in the 2023 renewal, and it was 105 in the 2022 event. Matches will begin rolling out over the next few days.
Now on with the preview.
Littler v Humphries
Before I start about Luke Humphries in quarter one, let’s just cover the match-up everyone will talk about – with LH winning an important psychological victory by taking down Luke Littler on Sunday. The pair are forming some rivalry now, having already played each other 14 times in Littler’s opening season – the youngster leads 8-6, but Humphries has won the last three. 101-98 is the overall leg different between the pair!
Quarter 1
It has to be Humphries to lose – he’s just so good on his A-Game. Outside of the seeded players I don’t really see much threat to him, so you’d expect his biggest challenge to come from Stephen Bunting or Mike de Decker. Bunting is definitely capable of throwing in a huge match, but they wouldn’t meet until the quarter-finals and that has to be a big advantage over that format to the World No.1. The same would be true of De Decker, while I’m not sure the likes of van Barneveld or Peter Wright have the ability at this moment to challenge Humphries, even if he was on his B-Game. I don’t want to take Humphries at 4/5 to win the quarter, but neither would I want to pick someone to get through ahead of him frankly, so we’ll skip this one.
Quarter 2
Another one where it all feels ominously inevitable. Before talking about this one I want to share some lunatic Luke Littler stats. The “Nuke” has hit some mind-bending form since playing his final Players Championship floor event in mid-October. Now I’ll admit it’s a hand picked period, but indulge me nonetheless. Since 17th October Littler has:
- Averaged 105.16 (LH is closest challenger at 100.01).
- Hit a 100+ average in 17 of 18 matches
- Hit 118 180s in 228 legs at a rate of 0.52 per leg
- Finished 20.7% of legs inside four visits (when given the opportunity to do so)
- Finished 68.6% of legs inside five visits
- Finished 97.4% of legs inside six visits.
- Hit 46.6% of his double attempts.
So in short, if he gets anywhere near that level, he’s largely unplayable. He will play either Fallon Sherrock or Ryan Meikle in the second round, before probably facing Ritchie Edhouse in the 3rd Round. I’m not sure there is anyone who can sustain his action right now in a weak looking quarter. I definitely wouldn’t put you off the 8/11 or 4/6 on him winning this section, but I think we’ll be having plenty of first round bets, so it doesn’t make sense to tie up funds right now at that sort of price.
Of the others, there isn’t a huge amount to call between Danny Noppert, Ryan Searle, Gian van Veen or Rob Cross on the stats over the past few months. Cross is the most capable and experienced on his best game, but he’s too often missed that form, while I’m not ready to trust van Veen not to regress just yet. Let’s leave this quarter.
Quarter 3
Now it gets more fun. This is a quarter for opinions. Michael Smith is the favourite, but he’s had a mega disappointing season and has looked far from his best for much of the year. Chris Dobey has certainly been a bit better on the data, and was the winner of Players Championship 25 and a finalist in Event 23 quite recently. I’d certainly prefer him to Smith. Wessel Nijman returned from his ban last season and is still finding his way back to the top of the game. On his day though he’s immense and has made two semi-finals and won a Players Championship event. He was also excellent in the Grand Slam.
That Gerwyn Price and Jonny Clayton are 4th and 5th favourites to win this section says everything you need to know about their slide from their best. Price has been struggling with injury, pulling out of several events with trapped nerve problems this season, while Clayton has been struggling for form for much longer. Of the pair Price is probably the more likely to produce an improvement.
But for me, I’d Dutch Dobey up with Josh Rock. He finished the Players Championship tour strongly by winning Event 30, and was a consistent feature in the latter rounds in the lead up to that. Over the season he won a couple of titles and made a few finals – especially on the European Tour. It’s true he didn’t kick on with his 2023 form which promised so much, but he’s definitely right there and ready to win things again. Faced with a mini task where you take Luke, Luke as well as Anderson and MvG out of the equation, and why not reach the semi-final?
4pts Chris Dobey to win Quarter 3 at 11/2 (Sky Bet) or 5/1 (PP, 888, Betfair SB, Will Hill)
4pts Josh Rock to win Quarter 3 at 9/1 (PP, Betfair SB)
Quarter 4
Final section with a face-off again between Michael van Gerwen and Gary Anderson potentially. That would happen in the fourth round. Anderson definitely has the edge of MvG lately in terms of pure numbers. While the Dutchman is 49-21 ahead on the head-to-head, Anderson has won their last two meetings this season (and only meetings this season) including in the Grand Slam a fortnight ago when he knocked out van Gerwen.
I definitely agree with the market in making Anderson favourite in this part, and he proved he could go long into matches when running Luke Littler all the way last weekend in the Players Championship Finals. Ahead of that tournament there might have been some doubts about Anderson’s stamina so we can largely cast those aside now.
It’s a reasonably deep quarter, with Ross Smith very capable, as is Dave Chisnall if he could recover his better form which has deserted him recently. Then you have Dimitri van den Bergh who has be ok this season, but always seems to find an extra gear on TV and feeds off the atmosphere at these bigger events.
I’m happy to take Anderson at 9/4 in this section. He’s 4/1 to reach the final suggesting he’d be about an 8/15 in the semi-final, and I’d prefer the quarter bet at this stage I think.
6pt Anderson to win Quarter 4 at 9/4 (PP or Betfair SB) or 15/8 (General)
In the 2024 Darts Season (includes 2024 World Champs) finalised at 28 events covered, 5866pts advised for +371 units across 601 bets. 6.3% profit
All Stattobets darts bet 17632 profit +1138.70 ROI + 6.46%
Last year the World Champs returned a massive 44% profit!
Join Stattobets and his army of winning suscribers for just £50 pcm.Get all the 2025 PDC World Darts write ups and bets, plus all of Dave's soccer write ups included. Join here
Premier League Darts - Home Field Advantage
Premier League Darts – Home Field Advantage
I’ve been writing Premier League Darts previews for a few years now, and betting on them for much longer. I’ve mumbled at times about home advantage and that my small sample and anecdotal memory told me it wasn’t a great advantage, if any at all perhaps. I thought it was about time I quantified that.
Method
I looked at the years 2015-2024 – ten years of tungsten action, across a range of venues. Given the number of English venues and English players, I focussed only on those players from Wales, Scotland, North Ireland and the Netherlands. What I wanted to know was whether playing in thier own countries, in front of their own fans, produced a significant advantage.
I compared the results they have achieved on home soil with their overall performances, and trusted that with a large enough sample size it would be reasonable to look at their leg win % as an indicator of quality – a pretty fair assumption given that we are always talking about the 8-10 players who are top of the rankings. Infinite time and infinite data, and perhaps I'd have looked at leg completion rates in 12, 15 and 18 darts. But time in finite.
Over those 10 years we saw performances from Peter Wright, Gary Anderson and Robert Thornton (Scotland), Gerwyn Price and Jonny Clayton (Wales), Daryl Gurney (Northern Ireland) and Michael Van Gerwn, Raymond Barneveld and Jelle Klaasen (the Netherlands).
Here are the results of their matches on home soil over that time:
|
Home |
Matches |
Legs Won |
Legs Lost |
Leg Win % |
|
Wright |
15 |
70 |
86 |
44.9% |
|
Anderson |
13 |
78 |
59 |
56.9% |
|
MvG |
10 |
63 |
45 |
58.3% |
|
Price |
10 |
52 |
49 |
51.5% |
|
RvB |
6 |
29 |
33 |
46.8% |
|
Clayton |
4 |
16 |
18 |
47.1% |
|
Gurney |
2 |
11 |
13 |
45.8% |
|
Thornton |
2 |
10 |
13 |
43.5% |
|
Klaasen |
1 |
3 |
7 |
30.0% |
|
Total |
|
332 |
323 |
50.7% |
So the nine players won a little over 50% of their matches. This in itself doesn’t tell us a lot – there are after-all some huge names in there – MvG is a 6-time champion in that time frame for example. In fact, nine of the ten years have seen one of the names above win the trophy. What we need to do is find out whether they under or over achieved on home soil compared to other matches.
To do this I then created a separate table. In this one it took their overall results, but only from years where they enjoyed at least one home-soil event, to ensure it was a fair sample. For those years, by player, we get the following comparison table.
|
Matches |
Legs Won |
Legs Lost |
Leg Win % |
|
|
Wright |
134 |
651 |
723 |
47.4% |
|
Anderson |
83 |
448 |
434 |
50.8% |
|
MvG |
112 |
643 |
452 |
58.7% |
|
Price |
109 |
571 |
530 |
51.9% |
|
RvB |
41 |
210 |
238 |
46.9% |
|
Clayton |
64 |
305 |
292 |
51.1% |
|
Gurney |
16 |
93 |
86 |
52.0% |
|
Thornton |
16 |
41 |
55 |
42.7% |
|
Klaasen |
9 |
42 |
58 |
42.0% |
|
3004 |
2868 |
51.2% |
So we can see over the wider population of results, our nine players actually won a combined 51.3% of legs – a greater % than they enjoyed at home.
There's a fair bit of noise in there though. Anderson seems to have done a bit better at home, Clayton and Gurney a bit worth, while Klaasen's numbers are too small to be worth considering.
Finally, I took the number of legs played by each player on home soil, and multiplied the number of legs played by the % of legs won by that player over all venues, over the same seasons in the same competition. This gives me an “Expected Legs Won” if venue was unimportant. For example, in the seasons in question, Michael van Gerwen played 1095 legs in total, winning 58.7% of them. He played 108 legs in Holland. So his Expected Legs over those matches, if being in Holland was no advantage, would be 108 * 0.587 = 63.4. He won 63 times.
Here is a table showing each players home field Legs Won / Legs Lost / Expected Legs Won.
|
Home Legs Won |
Home Legs Lost |
Overall Leg Win % |
Expected Legs |
|
|
Wright |
70 |
86 |
47.4% |
73.91 |
|
Anderson |
78 |
59 |
50.8% |
69.59 |
|
MvG |
63 |
45 |
58.7% |
63.42 |
|
Price |
52 |
49 |
51.9% |
52.38 |
|
RvB |
29 |
33 |
46.9% |
29.06 |
|
Clayton |
16 |
18 |
51.1% |
17.37 |
|
Gurney |
11 |
13 |
52.0% |
12.47 |
|
Thornton |
10 |
13 |
42.7% |
9.82 |
|
Klaasen |
3 |
7 |
42.0% |
4.20 |
|
332 |
323 |
332.22 |
Conclusion
Quite amazing – players playing at these tremendously intimidating environments, with thousands of loud fans, all baying for blood, won exactly the same number of legs as they would have expected to had the matches been played in any other venue on the circuit. 332 legs won, versus 332 which would have been won had they played the same number of legs in any randomly assigned venue on the nights in question!
We it’s one less thing to worry about when running my model anyway!
Thanks for reading!
League Two Transfer Window Winners and Losers
League Two
Accrington
Radek Vitek joining in goal might solve what has been a problem position for them through the season and should be an upgrade on the recalled Joe Walsh. Nothing else of note except Josh Andrews being recalled by Birmingham which is a bit of a blow.
6/10 An upgrade in net
AFC Wimbledon
It’s all about Ali Al-Hamadi joining Ipswich I’m afraid. Top scorer with 17 goals in all competitions this season he’s going to leave a huge hole. He scored 27 goals in 40 starts for the club and the 21 year old has left for a reported £1.1m fee - It looks a fair deal all round but won’t help Dons chances this season given the form he was in. Joe Lewis has signed permanently after spending the first half of the season on loan, but Connor Lemonheigh-Evans has rejoined Stockport at the end of his loan. Inbound is John-Kymani Gordon from Palace, but the jury is out given he made minimal impact at Cambridge.
Up front Josh Kelly was added today - he’s highly rated having scored a bunch of goals in the National League and he’s well known to the AFC Wimbledon recruitment team who brought him to Solihull in the past. He could be an exciting signing in a window that has been a success financially, if not immediately on the pitch.
4/10 Losing on of the best attacking players at this level has defined their window.
Barrow
Cole Stockton is the main news - loaned in from Burton where he’s failed to deliver on his previous pedigree at Morecambe. He’s still just 29 and a new club could see him get going again. Gerard Garner was recalled by Morecambe. 7/10 very settled, but Stockton is a good addition.
Bradford
Movement in goal, replacing Carlisle bound Harry Lewis with Sam Walker from Charlton. It looks like a downgrade. The other departures of Emmanuel Osadebe, Ryan East and Vadine Oliver just trim the squad with little impact, while Tyreik Wright joins the club for a second loan spell. Calum Kavanagh has come in up-front and of course they have Jake Young back in the squd now following his trail blazing at Swindon.
6/10 Looking up, but it needed to.
Colchester
The Cowley’s have kept the squad in tact so far in terms of things in their control. Losing Joe Taylor was a big blow though as he returned to Luton at the start of the month after scoring 12 in 27. Conor Wilkinson has scored goals at this level before by won’t be as prolific as Taylor.. They’ve also loaned in a few - Jayden Richardson looks a promising acquisition at right-back while Harry Anderson has played at a higher level so will hope to hit the ground running and has played under Cowley before. Alistair Smith and Riley Harbottle have also been loaned in. 6/10 Despite the loss of Taylor, one player rarely defines a season and the squad looks stronger now.
Crawley
Kamarai Swyer, Luca Ashby-Hammond and Aaron Henry were all recalled after playing bit-part roles. Individually none should really affect too much, but collectively it has left the squad a bit thin. Fans have been vocal about their concerns here but you get the feeling the board feel they have enough of a cushion to relegation and have closed the cheque book. Could be a tough second half of the season and a 10:45pm move for Jeremy Kelly just looks bizarre from my quick research about him!
3/10 Owners appear happy to save money right now
Crewe
Connor O’Riordan joining Blackburn was devastating for Crewe fans - the centre-back will certainly be missed, but continues an inevitable climb up the league ladder. A fee of about £500k sounds fair enough and I’m sure they will have built in add-ons. I guess it’s infuriating for Crewe who are having a really good crack at promotion back to League One.Joe White has been recalled to Newcastle which will also be frustrating as he’d enjoyed a wondered first half to the season. Ed Turner is the arrival to plug the gap left by O’Riordan - the Brighton big man should enjoy game time.
Josh Austerfield arrives on loan - a defensive midfielder who is great on the ball, while Lewis Leigh had a solid first half to the season at Bromley and has been rewarded with a progression into League Two. 4/10 Two major losses, but working hard to mitigate the impact
Doncaster
Fair to say Donny fans don’t love their owners after promises of summer investment failed to materialise. Money still hasn't been spent but they have been busy enough bringing in Jay McGrath from St Patricks, who has pleased fans initially. Hakeeb Adelakun has joined on loan from Lincoln and Billy Waters from Wrexham, which strengthens their options in attack. Conor Carty and Matthew Craig are further loans. It looks a little bit panicky to me. Three recalls - Mo Faal will be a significant loss after eight goals, while Tyler Robers and Louie Marsh have barely been involved. 4/10 A hard one to make out. Doesn’t feel like a big step forward to me.
Forest Green
Troy Deeney out, Steve Cotterill in at the top. Bottom of the league and nine points from safety means this is a pivotal window - especially given January has yielded just three points from a possible 15. It’s a while since James Belshaw left, but he will be very hard to replace. Both Callum Morton and Reece Welch were regulars before recalls, but it’s fair to say they were part of a losing side more often than not. Matty Taylor has also left but didn’t do a great deal.
In-coming are Manchester United youngster Maxi Oyedele and goalkeeper Tommy Simkin from Stoke, but I’ve got more hopes for Dominic Thompson at left-back, who was a £1m signing by Brentford five years ago and has been playing in League One since then for Ipswich and Blackpool. Alex Gorrin and Emmanuel Osadebe also join.
Christian Doidge has endured a reasonably bleak time up in Scotland in front fo goal and a return to Forest Green after five years away will be exciting for both him and the fans.
6/10 Shuffled a bit and that can hardly be a bad thing right now. Surely not enough to get them out of trouble though.
Gillingham
Spent money like it was going out of fashion last January, and started the season with high hopes but definitely no world beaters on the evidence. Lacked a goal-scorer really this season so they’ve shuffled things up a load. They’ve let Lewis Walker join Woking, Tom Nichols head to Mansfield and Macauley Bonne go to Cambridge on loan. They’ve replaced them with Josh Walker on loan from Burton (scored on his debut) and Josh Andrews on loan from Birmingham.
Remeao Hutton has joined from Swindon - a regular starter for the Robins and a creative threat down the right hand side on his day, but has regressed this season and the deal makes sense for both sides - especially if cash is an issue at Swindon. Jorge Hurtado has joined on loan from Watford. He’s one I know nothing about!
6/10 Wouldn’t be getting over excited but its probably a positive window for Stephen Clemence.
Grimsby
Defender Doug Tharme scored on his debut after swapping Blackpool reserves for Grimsby. Largely unproven but did become a regular at Accrington in League One during a loan spell there. Looks handy and also has a hell of a throw on him. He will team up again with his former Accrington colleague Harvey Rodgers and they should be decent at this level. Competition arrives in the right-back slot with Liam Smith coming down Cheltenham, while they’ve also signed Justin Obikwu (Coventry) and Harry Wood (Hull) on loan.
Tharme’s signing allows them to let Luke Waterfall join Hartlepool along with Otis Khan who hasn’t got a look in this campaign. A much bigger impact will come from selling Kamil Conteh - one of the better holding midfielders in the division and I think they will really miss him.
A deadline day move for Curtis Thompson sees the midfield tasked with replacing Conteh. Thompson was dropping down the pecking order at Cheltenham so it makes sense for everyone. Another addition on the final day has been Denver Hume at left-back - I wouldn't be too excited about a player who spends a lot of time injured and he’s perhaps just adding depth to the squad.
6/10 - A decent shuffle of the defence after some seriously bad performances recently.
Harrogate
Not much activity at Harrogate. James Belshaw was made permanent after an emergency loan and it’s worked out well as he’s a significant improvement on what was available before. They’ve also got Joe Mattock back at the club - returning from a spell with Hartlepool, but he won’t improve the squad. Luke Armstrong has joined Carlisle for a fee thought to be around £300k. A failed move to Wrexham at the last window left him frozen out so he’s barely kicked a ball since then.
Deadline day has seen the club busy - the sale of Kayne Ramsay to Charlton is significant - he was surely one of the best right-backs in the division and is one of the best players I’ve ever seen in a Town shirt. WIth contract up in the summer it looks a sensible deal for everyone involved, but it undoubtedly leaves Harrogate weakened. They’ve reacted by bringing in Derrick Abu from Southampton. He’s a former Chelsea graduate who has played at youth football for England, so Town fans will hope he’s in a similar mould to Ramsay. They’ve also brought in reinforcements up top which was needed, although Tom Bloxham is unproven so jury has to be out on him for the time being.
5/10 - Fans will be happy enough come midnight, but might have liked something slightly more exciting inbound.
Mansfield
The Stags are going wonderful well and have avoided any disruptions at all. 6/10 No changes, and I’m scoring that a positive based on their status this season.
MK Dons
Right sided forward Jonathan Leko has joined Burton on loan in search of more regular pitch time, while Mo Eisa has gone to Exeter - again on loan. That’s pretty incredible given he was fifth favorite to finish top scorer in the division in August, but his impact has faded and with his contract running down, MK have taken the opportunity of a small loan fee - something fans seem content enough with. There has been a change between the sticks too, with Craig MagGillivray loaned out to Stevenage, ad Filip Marschall brought in from Villa. Also heading out on loan is Dawson Devoy - he’s only played a bit part this season but should be a good acquisition for Swindon.
Coming in has been Dan Kemp who was on fire for Swindon before Christmas. His return is like a new signing and might have paved the way for Eisa to leave, while Stephen Wearne could prove a bargain for £60k after being snapped up from Gateshead.
6/10 Like the business, but some of it felt somewhat unnecessary
Morecambe
Adam Mayor was confirmed as leaving to join Millwall on Wednesday and that’s one of the stars of the division moving upwards. The deal could eventually reach £1m according to reports. It comes after the loss of James Connolly, Tom Bloxham, Eli King and 15-goal Michael Mellon to recalls. Between those five that’s 95 first team starts this season.
With an owner trying to sell the club it’s unsurprising that money hasn’t been splashed. They’ve replaced the loanee losses with Joe Adams from Wigan, Archie Mair from Norwich, Gerard Garner from Barrow and Nelson Khumbeni (Bolton) - all on loan, and the signing of Kayden Harrack (QPR) and three free agents in Gwion Edwards, Brandon Barker and Oscar Threkeld. Of those seven coming in, five were involved against Colchester, so we’ll want to reassess Morecambe in a couple of weeks. They’ve also added Julian Larsson on loan from Forest this evening.
4/10 - Too much change for it to be positive, and Adam Mayor is a huge loss.
Newport
It’s basically as you were with the small addition of Luke Jephcott. He’s not scored this season for St Johnstone but he’s proved good enough at this level in the past so Newport will hope to get him going.
5/10 - An extra body is a positive and takes the head off Will Evans a little.
Notts County
With Luke Williams moving onto Swansea Jim O’Brien might have a few players he wants to bring in - especially with Notts County on the edge of the play-offs and the obvious target for the gaggle of clubs behind them. He’s still got everyone together from the first half of the season so far and they’ve added Scott Robertson from Fleetwood, and also Alassana Jatta from Viborg - a club also owned by the same group as County.
5/10 - Nothing caught the eye
Salford
Odin Bailey has signed a permanent deal with Stockport having already been there on loan, while Callum Morton has returned from his time at Forest Green. Jez Davies is an interesting one - he was well thought of at Burnley so his free-transfer might well come with future sell-on clauses you suspect.
With Luke Bolton joining Wrexham on deadline day, the arrival of Dan Chester could be the like-for-like replacement. He’s come through the ranks at West Ham and has already enjoyed successful loans at this level.
6/10 - A quiet window, but coming out stronger
Stockport
Stockport have been busy. Odin Bailey has played a big part so making him permanent was a priority. Loan recalls have been a threat - but fortunately Joe Cotterill, Alfie Pond and Jayden Richardson have only been fringe contributors.
They’ve bolstered the squad with Ethan Bristow from Minnesota, and also Rico Richards from Villa. Connor Lemonheigh-Evans is also back to increase the options as they move into a push for the title, and Lewis Cass adds cover in the backline as well on deadline day.
6/10 Squad looks strong and they’ve done what was needed.
Sutton
In a desperate situation at the foot of the table frankly so they’ve hit the market. Sashiel Adom-Malaki gets his first taste of senior football on-loan from Millwall, the same is true of Jay Williams from Fulham, while Oliver Sanderson scored goals at Oxford City during the first half of the season and Sutton are hoping he can perform in the Football League. Jury is out on all three and it seems a lot of faith to put in ones so young. Charlie Lakin is more experienced and joins from Burton until the end of the season, while Stephen Duke-McKenna is inexperienced having mostly played in the Conference South.
Both Aiden O’Brien and Dion Pereira return to parent clubs.
3/10 A bit of change, but hard to see it working. Watch their numbers closely over the coming weeks.
Swindon
It’s a tough period for Swindon, who have been penalised for a late HMRC payment with an embargo placed on the club for this window preventing them paying any fees. It might suit them with budgets reasonably tight anyway. The main news in this window was the recalls of both Jake Young and Dan Kemp - the pair had scored 30 league goals between them so it’s a huge challenge for the management team to mitigate the impact. Remeao Hutton has also joined Gillingham for a fee and despite having a weaker season than in 22/23, he’s still a big loss, as is Liam Kinsella from the holding role. Regular stopper Murphy Mahoney was also recalled at the end of December to QPR.
Plenty of work to do therefore, and they’ve signed striker Paul Glatzel from Tranmere - a promising player but one already with a history of tricky injuries. Swindon are well known for having a great strength and conditioning department so if anywhere is going to get him back on track, it’s them. Nevertheless, it’s a risk. Goalkeeping duties are entrusted to Jack Bycroft who steps up from non-league appearances earlier in the season with Aldershot and Oxford City, while Pharrell Johnson makes his first steps in the senior game in defence.
They’ve also hit the loan market for Conor McCarthy and Dawson Devoy who is one I’m hoping to see thrive, while Aaron Drinan has been great and terrible at different times in his career so he’s a bit of a gamble, but it could pay off.
In a late late update, Harry McKirdy has rejoined Swindon on loan until the end of the season. Now that IS big news! McKirdy is probably the most hated played in the League Two, but that hate comes for a reason. He's a real danger if they can get him going as he was 12 months ago!
5/10 - Always playing catch up after losing Young and Kemp
Tranmere
15 points clear of relegation and eight off the play-offs (but 10 places) you can forgive Tranmere with opting to stick rather than twist. Rob Apter’s loan has been extended. That’s it!
5/10 - No danger of relegation so opted to stick
Walsall
Similar to Tranmere, this season is petering out so arguably becomes one of long term strategy rather than short termism. Fraser Draper scored 10 goals whilst on loan from Lincoln and the youngster has been rewarded with a recall and a spot in the first team in League One. That will be a loss of the Saddlers. Mo Faal will replace him and could kick on in a better side than Doncaster. Josh Gordon also joins from Burton.
5/10 - Somethings stable and boring is fine
Wrexham
The Welsh side like to do things late. They waited until deadline day to pounce on Jack Marriot. He’s clearly a cut above League One having top scored in League One a few years ago and a spell at Fleetwood just hasn’t worked out. Expect plenty of goals from him from here on in! They’ve also brought in Luke Bolton from Salford who looks a perfect addition on the right side - he’ll surely play the wing-back role there and he’s another proven operator.
They’ve let Billy Waters depart on loan to Doncaster.
8/10 Looking to nail the run-in
League Two Penalty Takers
Penalty Takers – League Two
I always start to think about dipping into the Top Goalscorer Market again a few weeks into the season. After 4-6 game weeks we should have a better idea about who really looks good from a team perspective, we can also start to see a bit of shot data emerging about the strikers to which we can add some xG data, and crucially we might also know who is on penalties for a good few teams. That’s important if you want to land a Top Scorer Bet.
Here’s the top four scorers (and ties) in League Two for the last four years.
2022/23
Andy Cook – 28 Goals (4 Pens)
Sam Hoskins – 22 Goals (3 Pens)
Kristian Dennis – 20 Goals (3 Pens)
Omar Bogle – 17 Goals (5 Pens)
2021/22
Dom Telford – 25 Goals (2 Pens)
Matt Stevens – 23 Goals (1 Pen)
Harry KcKirdy – 21 Goals
Jamile Matt – 19 Goals (3 Pens)
2020/21
Paul Mullin – 31 Goals (11 Pens)
Eoin Doyle – 19 Goals (3 Pens)
Matt Jay – 27 Goals (4 Pens)
Jamile Matt – 17 Goals (3 Pens)
Ian Henderson 17 Goals (5 Pens)
Conor McAleny – 17 Goals (3 Pens)
Danny Johnson – 17 Goals (2 Pens)
2019/20
Eoin Doyle – 25 Goals (2 Pens)
Ryan Bowman – 14 Goals (1 Pen)
Nicky Maynard – 14 Goals
Jerryy Yates – 13 Goals (1 Pen)
Ollie Palmer – 13 Goals (1 Pen)
Only 2 of the 20 players to win or place in the market have failed to score a penalty during the season. My point is simple here – being on penalties is a really good way of narrowing the list of potential League Top Scorers come the end of the season. So without further ado – here are the players who have taken their sides' penalties so far this season after four matches!
AFC Wimbledon – Ali Al Hamadi (2 – both missed) and James Tilley (1 scored – may take over as penalty taker potentially)
Mansfield – Lucas Atkins
Bradford – Andy Cook
Tranmere – Josh Hawkes
Wrexham – Elliot Lee
Newport – Adam Lewis
Crewe – Chris Long
Crawley – Dom Telford (missed)
Harrogate – Jack Muldoon
Morecambe – Michael Mellon
League Two Opening Day Review
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League Two Opening Day Review
Once again if you only come for the tips, you can safely ignore this article.
Sutton are top of the leauge after thrashing Notts County 5-1. Omari Patrick netted twice after his free transfer from Carlisle but County goalkeeper Aidan Stone was shown red early on, so we need to treat all the data with caution here of course, and interestingly it was Notts County who saw most of the ball despite being down to ten.
I’d say the jury is defintiely out in terms of what to make of that performance – Sutton won’t convert 83% of shots on target going through the season and their xG only amounted to 1.43 despite scoring five. On a positive note for the visitors, David McGoldrick wasted no time opening his account for the season.
Pre-season relegation favourites Crawley Town collected three points against promotion hopeful's Bradford and it was no more than they deserved as they created a strong of chances in the match, while Mansfield should rue haing Calum MacDonald sent off. They've been firmly in charge for the majoroty of the match until that point, but allowed Crewe back into a match they should have had sown up by then.
Harrogate Town travelled to Donny without star-man Luke Armstrong, and his imminent departure is terrible news for the Sulphurites. I watched that match and frankly Town were pretty awful - generating just 0.21 non-penalty xG, and that could well become the norm unless they can sign a decent front man. I'm not holding out much hope and they could well be a side who struggle to score goals now as a result.
If you're looking for a result which simply "wasn't fair" then Salford's 2-0 win at Forest Green has a good shout. FGR were the better side on all the metrics that matter (apart from goals scored). They passed better, took more shots, created more high quality chances, hit the woodwork and generally dominated. They will be one to watch in the markets next week for sure.
I'm struggling to make much of the Grimsby v AFC Wimbledon draw, while Morecambe opened with an important and deserved win over Walsall. If Morecambe being a relegation prospect could own that match, you wonder if Walsall could be a troubled side in the months ahead. Plenty will be made of Gillingham's win at Stockport, but it looks like that result could have gone either way really and was probably a bit of an upset.
Our weekend selection Accrington ran out 3-0 winners against Newport but I wont be crowing about this as the match was pretty level but for the sharper finishing from the home side. The visitors should be more pleased with their performance than they were about the outcome.
Barrow have been a few people's picks to over achieve in League Two this time around - but they stole a win from Tranmere that they never deserved. They scored with two from three shots on target and were out-played throughout. Tranmere might need to concentrate on their final-third performance, but they definitely don't appear to have been well treated by lady-luck.
Finally Wrexham have conceded five goals already as they lost 5-3 to MK Dons. People will be getting excited about it all, but MK actually netted five from just 0.76 xG so I wouldnt be getting concerned for the Welsh side just yet. They landed 23 shots themselves including 13 inside the box.
